Barnet v Brentford: Goals bet the way to play in Battle of the Bees

Barnet v Brentford
Monday 28 January, 19:45
Live on BT Sport

Non-league side out to make history

Barnet's good run of current form has coincided with a record-equalling FA Cup run, and the north London side go into this fourth round tie having won eight of their previous 13 matches in all competitions.

Unfortunately for the non-league version of the Bees just three of those victories have come in the National League and Darren Currie's men will commence this cup tie just five points above the drop zone, though they do have up to five games in hand on the teams below them in the table.

But league matters can wait for another day, Barnet will attempt to reach the fifth round of the FA Cup for the first time in their history on Monday night, their two previous appearances in this round of the competition resulting in defeats to Plymouth (2007) and Bristol Rovers (2008).

The Bees won away at League One side Bristol Rovers in round one before producing a huge shock in the third round, winning 1-0 away at Championship highflyers Sheffield United. National League North side Stockport County were Barnet's beaten rivals in the second round.

Currie - who will take charge of Barnet for the first time since being named permanent manager - is without suspended goalkeeper Mark Cousins; teenage Latvian Rihards Matrevics is expected to make his full debut between the sticks.

Brentford finding their feet for Frank

It's been a bit of an in and out season so far for Brentford, the Championship side started the campaign by losing just one of their first 10 games in all competitions, winning six and drawing three which resulted in Dean Smith's men - who was manager at the time - sitting in a lofty position in the league table.

But the Bees would then go six games without a win, Smith was snapped up by Aston Villa, and incoming manager Thomas Frank would witness his men win just one of his first 10 games in charge, losing eight of those fixtures.

Fortunes have since changed again however, with Brentford enjoying a fine festive season and a good start to 2019 meaning they go into this FA Cup fourth round tie unbeaten in seven games and on the back of three straight victories.

A relatively strong starting XI required an 80th minute penalty to see off League One outfit Oxford in the third round and Frank is once again expected to name a strong line-up for the short trip to Barnet, though midfielder Lewis Macleod is likely to miss out with a hamstring injury and defender Chris Mepham joined Premier League outfit Bournemouth in a £12m transfer earlier this week.

Market swarming all over the Brentford Bees

A total of 71 places separate Barnet and Brentford in the league ladder - the biggest gap of all 16 fourth round ties - so it's understandable that the away team are available to back at just 1.54 to win this game. One could argue that on ability and current form that they should be trading even shorter.

But it's important that we point out that Brentford have won just one of 14 league away games this term, and although that victory was very recent it did come against one of the worst teams in the Championship - a 4-2 win at Rotherham.

And caution is also advised by simply referring to Barnet's earlier victories at Bristol Rovers, and especially at Sheffield United where Currie's men were a massive price - around the 16.00 mark - to cause the upset. Proof if needed that in cup ties the underdog is always likely to raise their game, while the huge favourites can become complacent, believing they should win the match by simply turning up. Take West Ham's defeat to Wimbledon on Saturday night for example.

So I really can't put anyone off backing the hosts to win here at 7.80 (the Draw can be backed at 4.40) but it's not a market that I want to get remotely involved in.

At least three goals the best bet of the game

With that 4-2 Wimbledon victory over the Hammers in mind, and Millwall's earlier 3-2 win over Everton, backing goals could be the way to play in this match also.

Cheered on by a full house at The Hive, under the floodlights, in what is forecasted to be a blustery cold night in north London, an entertaining game certainly looks on the cards.

Brentford's only away game in cup competition this season - an EFL Cup tie at Southend - finished 2-4, while that was also the scoreline in their most recent away game in the Championship. And their last away game against a London rival finished 3-2, a defeat to QPR before Christmas.

Barnet have failed to score in a game just once in their last 14 home matches, while two of their last four games in front of their own fans were cup games (FA Trophy) that ended 3-2 and 2-1.

On the Betfair Sportsbook Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at 20/23, and that's a price that makes lots of appeal for a cup tie that both sides will feel they can win, not forgetting it being a London derby also.

Back Robson to score another FA Cup goal

If you want to cheer on the underdogs on Monday night then backing a Barnet player to get on the scoresheet will help you do that. Former Tottenham youth player Shaquile Coulthirst - the goalscoring hero from the third round win at Sheff United - can be backed at 9/1 to open the scoring or at 3/1 to score anytime. He'll have his supporters for sure.

But it's another former Premier League trainee that catches our eye. Craig Robson - once with Newcastle United - is a centre back who loves to get forward and has already scored two FA Cup goals from his four ties played this term.

Both of those goals came from open play, Robson getting forward at every opportunity and proving that players take more risks in a one-off cup tie. He's 40/1 to score the first goal of the game and 14/1 to score at anytime, which is the price I'll put up in this preview, but he will be a much bigger price on the Exchange once the markets gain liquidity.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 20/23

Back Craig Robson to score anytime @ 14/1