Crystal Palace v Tottenham: Spurs can avoid another cup exit even with stars missing

Crystal Palace v Tottenham
Sunday 27 January, 16:00
Live on BT Sport

Goalkeeping concerns

Palace have lost back-to-back Premier League games since their 1-0 home win over Grimsby in the FA Cup third round. That leaves them still in the relegation battle, just three points above the drop zone, and with that in mind this match is not the 'free hit' it might have been.

Roy Hodgson must keep one eye on the midweek Premier League match away to Southampton in his team selection and he still has goalkeeping concerns with Wayne Hennessey and Vicente Guaita both battling injury and third-choice Julian Speroni having made a crucial error in last week's 4-3 defeat at Liverpool.

Christian Benteke could return after four months on the sidelines, looking for his first goal since April. Defender Pape Souare is still out with a shoulder injury.

Thursday night blues

Tottenham's best chance of silverware this season slipped away on Thursday night when they lost their Carabao Cup semi-final on penalties against Chelsea and they must raise themselves just three days later for this chance to progress in a competition that now rates as their biggest hope.

Once again Mauricio Pochettino will have to cope without three main attacking talents with Harry Kane (ankle) and Dele Alli (hamstring) injured and Son Heung-Min still away on international duty at the Asian Cup.

Moussa Sissoko, just back from injury, and Ben Davies both went off on Thursday night but the early indications were that there were no serious issues.

Some good news was that Lucas Moura made his first appearance in three weeks, coming on midway through the second half, although it was less positive that he missed in the penalty shootout along with Eric Dier.

Excitement in short supply

Palace's best performances this season have come on the road with their 3-2 win at Manchester City and last week's 4-3 loss at Liverpool, but matches at Selhurst Park have been rather turgid affairs with seven of their last 10 home games having no more than one goal.

That list includes a 1-0 defeat by Tottenham in early November when Kane and Alli played but Christian Eriksen spent the entire match on the bench and Son appeared only for the last 20 minutes with his team already in front.

Palace will have more hope against a weakened Spurs but their lack of cutting edge at home is a serious concern. Wilfried Zaha's three goals this season have been in away games and the last of them was in mid-September, while Andros Townsend has scored four of his five goals on the road.

Tiredness and dejection following Thursday's match might affect Tottenham but the importance of those factors is hard to pinpoint pre-match and their overall quality should shine through even without their missing stars. They produced a strong finish when put under pressure at Fulham last weekend and Palace, on this season's evidence, have less attacking threat than the Cottagers.

It might be tempting to back Palace for an upset but the odds are much more appealing on Tottenham given that there is a sizeable class gap. Pochettino's side have to rate as the more likely winners and the draw no bet basically comes down to a 50-50 choice between the two sides.

Looking from that perspective, it is Spurs who offer the value at 1.96 on draw no bet.

String of 1-0 results

Goals have been in short supply at Selhurst Park this season with only two of Palace's 12 home games going over 2.5 goals.

That has been the case in recent matches between these two sides too, with the last six meetings all settled by a 1-0 scoreline (the last five in Tottenham's favour).

Tottenham have scored in all 20 away games in all competitions this season (more than once on 14 occasions) and Pochettino's tactical adaptability continues to make them a threat even without their main three strikers.

The doubt with the goals is on the Palace side and betting low seems the logical choice.

Opta Stat

Since eliminating four Premier League teams on their way to the 2016 final, Crystal Palace have lost their last three FA Cup matches of this kind. Palace are 2.80 to win this time.

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Back Tottenham on Draw No Bet at 1.96