Roma v Milan Sunday, 19:30 Live on Betfair Live Video, Eleven Sports 2 and Premier 1
Injury hit and dispirited, there's an argument to say that Roma should be the outsiders to beat Milan on Sunday night, but the fact that they aren't makes the visitors a must bet here.
Roma's 7-1 trouncing by Fiorentina in the Coppa Italia on Wednesday evening came as the result of a disgraceful performance, and when you add that to their capitulation against Atalanta last weekend, it has to be a mild surprise that Eusebio Di Francesco is still in a job.
He will surely be out of one should Roma lose this, and his cause isn't helped by the absence through suspension of both Bryan Cristante and Steven Nzonzi, and that Daniele De Rossi - a likely replacement for one or the other - isn't fully fit.
Roma's senior players have let them down this season. Both Edin Dzeko and Aleksandar Kolarov should be ashamed of their contributions in midweek. They looked like a team over which Di Francesco has no control, and Milan will fancy this.
The Rossoneri have improved steadily under Gennaro Gattuso, and are rock solid defensively, having conceded only three Serie A goals since the start of December. Their new Polish signing Krzysztof Piatek scored twice in the Cup win over Napoli on Tuesday, and that gives them the cutting edge that they lacked in the first half of the season.
With Roma and Di Francesco on the brink, Milan are a must bet at a big price.
Juve defence decimated
Juventus v Parma Saturday, 19:30 Live on Betfair Live Video, Eleven Sports 2 and FreeSports
After seeing them struggle to an undeserved win against Lazio on Sunday night, it was no great surprise to then watch Juventus capitulate against Atalanta in the Cup on Wednesday, a combination of injuries, tiredness, and a sensational home performance just too much in the end for Max Allegri's team.
No one in Turin will be pressing the panic button, of course. Allegri's team have an 11 point lead in Serie A which they are unlikely to relinquish, and the matches that loom largest are the two in the Champions League against Atletico Madrid.
Juve have problems, though. Leo Bonucci is out for a month, and with Giorgio Chiellini joining him for a proportion of that time, and Medhi Benatia gone to Qatar, Juve are left with one good centre-half, Daniele Rugani, one very average one, Martin Caceres, and a full back who can play at centre-back, Mattia De Sciglio. Their defence looks thin.
With that in mind, and with Juve likely to improve in forward areas against Parma, I think that "Yes" to both teams to score looks big here at2.60. Parma might be on a bad run, and I certainly wouldn't be backing them to win this game, but I think that they have every chance of scoring.
They've scored twice in each of their last two, have found the net in three of their last four, and Gervinho managed a goal in their 2-1 defeat by Juventus earlier in the season, and that was against a much stronger defence than the one we'll see at the weekend.
It's important that we don't overreact to a Juve defeat, and two poor performances, but this isn't an overreaction, more a realistic conclusion.
Cagliari v Atalanta Monday, 20:00 Live on Betfair Live Video, Eleven Sports 2 and Premier Sports 1
The temptation to once again support Fabio Quagliarella and Sampdoria, this time on their trip to Naples, was enormous, but while they look a huge price to win at the San Paolo, I sense that I might be going to the same well once too often if I tip them. Instead then, I'll put my faith in Atalanta's ability to score goals, and concede them.
Gian Piero Gasperini's team were magnificent in beating Juventus on Wednesday, and they've had plenty of recovery time for this Monday night kick-off in Sardinia. They should be primed to go again.
Atalanta have now scored 38 goals in their last 13 League games, and the form of Duvan Zapata has been extraordinary. He now has 15 goals for the season and is right in the race to finish as Capocannoniere.
Atalanta's last seven Serie A games have seen an average of five goals scored, and the way that they're approaching challenges like this at the moment would indicate that there's every chance of more goals here. Cagliari's last home game featured four goals, and that outcome is priced at3.00 here, which seems too big to me.
Back Milan to beat Roma @ 3.45
Back “Yes” to Both Teams to Score in Juventus v Parma @ 2.60