US Open Women's Singles Day Five Tips: Putintseva some value against Sasnovich

 US Open Women's Singles Day Five Tips: Putintseva some value against Sasnovich

We have eight third round matches in the women's singles at the US Open on Friday, and returning to preview the action is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

Pironkova shocks Muguruza after three years out

The biggest shock on day four was the exit of Garbine Muguruza to Tsvetana Pironkova, who before this week, hadn't played a professional match since Wimbledon in 2017, over three years ago. A straight-set victory was not anticipated. We also saw the exit of Jo Konta at the hands of Sorana Cirstea, while Victoria Azarenka triumphed in the all-Belarus battle against Aryna Sabalenka. While break point performance helped Azarenka, she deserved her victory.

Linette unlikely to be a pushover

For Friday's matches, the markets look pretty accurate, although there are one or two spots worth discussing. I've been really impressed with the improvement of Anett Kontaveit of late, but she looks a little short at 1.23 against Magda Linette, who has solid hard court data herself.

Kontaveit is now at top 10 level on hard court (115% combined hold/break in the last 12 months) but Linette is certainly not a pushover (107%) and has actually won four of their previous six meetigns, albeit a long time ago when Kontaveit was considerably younger and lower ranked.

Putintseva some value to defeat Sasnovich

The other match where I think the prices are out of line slightly is Yulia Putintseva at 1.79 for her match with Aliaksandra Sasnovich. The Belarussian, Sasnovich, tends to have spells throughout the year where she has a much higher level than at other times, but on 12 month hard court data, I make Putintseva the 1.61 favourite for this.

Around about a 6-7% implied edge isn't huge, but it's the best of a bad bunch today, in my view. Putintseva has eased herself into the tournament with several wins as a very heavy favourite, and while Sasnovich is a bit of an upgrade on those players, I think the market is probably over-reacting to her dominant win over Marketa Vondrousova (who hasn't impressed as much as I thought she would this year) in round two.

Outright selections in action

In other matches, our two outright picks are in action, with Petra Martic and Petra Kvitova both similarly priced around the 1.35 mark against Varvara Gracheva and Jessica Pegula, respectively. My model didn't find either price particularly out of line.

We also see tournament favourite Naomi Osaka continue her tournament, with the Japanese player a heavy 1.20 favourite to get the better of Marta Kostyuk who got us a decent winner on Wednesday against Anastasija Sevastova, while some people seem surprised about the price of Caroline Garcia at [3.00] against Jennifer Brady. I've made no secret that I think Brady is often a little over-rated of late, but Garcia's numbers haven't been strong at all in the last 12-18 months and I think Brady looks pretty accurately priced here.