US Open Women's Singles Day Two Tips: McNally a tentative recommendation

There are a further 32 first round matches on day two of the US Open, and returning to preview Tuesday's schedule is our tennis columnist, Dan Weston...

Mladenovic just about covers despite more double faults

Our advocated caution on day one was confirmed by many of the matches which I perceived that the market 'knows' turning out in the way that was implied by the market. The first round of a Grand Slam is difficult enough at the best of times, but in the current situation with many players having either none, or little, game time in the last six months, it's even tougher.

Despite serving nine double faults yesterday - an issue that she is finding tough to address - Kristina Mladenovic just about covered the game handicap against Hailey Baptiste to hand us an opening round loser on day one. However, both our outright picks got into round two. On day one, there wasn't an abundance of shocks, and it will be interesting to see whether this situation continues today, which sees the final 32 first-round matches take place.

Lack of court time for Diyas a negative

Action gets underway in New York at 1600 UK time, and as with yesterday, the card looks extremely 'trappy'. Even where the model has found value, there looks like potential 'ifs and buts', and it's difficult to recommend anything other than continued cautious staking in these first round matches.

With that out of the way, I will discuss some of the spots which my model has found some value, and try to give a tentative recommendation for today's women's singles matches. Bernarda Pera has played several tournaments since the resumption of the tour, losing (perhaps understandably) against Serena Williams and Dayana Yastremska, and beating Heather Watson. She looks short at 1.56 against Zarina Diyas, but I'm concerned about Diyas only playing one match since the first week of February, and that was a resounding defeat to Ann Li last week in qualifiers for the Western & Southern Open.

McNally with a data edge over Kuzmova

The aforementioned Ann Li also beat Viktoria Kuzmova in those qualifiers and the Slovak, Kuzmova, looks over-rated by the markets for her clash with the talented young American player, Caty McNally. Kuzmova played a mixture of clay and hard court exhibition events during the pause on tour, and generally lost quite straightforwardly against her better opponents and beat those worse - mostly those who were a lot worse, including unranked players and players ranked outside the top 1000.

McNally has struggled a bit as underdog in her two hard court warm-up events for this, but is facing a downgrade in opposition here from her opponents in those tournaments, Ons Jabeur and Alize Cornet. Medium-term hard court data suggests McNally should be a solid favourite for this, yet we should be able to get around 1.95 with the market finding it difficult to split the duo. As said, it's a tentative recommendation, but it's the best of a bad bunch in my view.

Konta looking a little short for Battle of the Brits

In other matches, Jo Konta looks short at 1.19 in the Battle of the Brits against Heather Watson, while Jill Teichmann - where have we heard this before - also does against Aliona Bolsova. They should be strong favourites, but I'd disagree with the extent that they are.

We also see the likes of Serena Williams, Garbine Muguruza, Sofia Kenin and Madison Keys in action, as more big names get the campaign up and running. There's also some fascinating, and potentially closer, matches later on in the schedule, with Donna Vekic facing Krystina Pliskova in a likely big-serving clash, while another big-server, Karolina Muchova, looks accurately priced at around 1.55 for her match with Venus Williams.

British Tennis Player Johanna Konta

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