Friday, August 11, 6pm (AEST) at ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Eels are one of the form teams of the competition and only find themselves out of the Top 4 on for-and-against. They’ve won their last six straight and will be looking to put a big score on the Knights to improve their F/A. The Knights have won their last two straight, but will need everything to go to their way if they’re to cause an upset as massive outsiders. Knights fullback Nathan Ross is out with a back injury, replaced by the dynamic Dane Gagai. The Eels have named Bevan French at fullback, but have both Josh Hoffman and Will Smith on an extended bench if French can’t overcome his hamstring injury.
HistoryThe Eels have won the last two against the Knights after losing seven straight. Four of the last five matches have topped 38 points.
FormParramatta are the hot team in the NRL with six straight wins and 11 victories in their last 14 matches. They are up to fifth on the ladder. The Eels have conceded just 10.33ppg over the last six weeks. Newcastle are on their first winning streak since 2015 with consecutive wins over St George Illawarra and New Zealand. They remain last on the ladder with a 4-16 record. Three of Newcastle’s last four road losses have come by four points or less.
Key MatchupCorey Norman v Brock Lamb: It’s been the Mitchell Moses show of late for the Eels, but beware of the one-two punch, with Norman ready to strike when he has to. Norman hasn’t had a try-assist for two weeks, but that will change on Friday night, with The Wolf expecting a comfortable win to the Eels. Lamb had a career-best game in the win over the Warriors last week. He had three line-break assists, two try-assists and scored a try. This will be a big test coming up against Norman, but Knights coach Nathan Brown has to be happy with how he is progressing this season.
Stats That Matter– Parramatta are 11-9 ATS with a 14-6 under record while Newcastle are 10-10 ATS with a 12-8 under record.
– The Eels have won the last two against the Knights after losing seven straight.
– Four of the last five matches have topped 38 points.
– Three of the last four matches have been decided by a single score.
– Parramatta are 14-9 ATS with a 17-6 under record at ANZ since 2014.
– The Eels have covered 9 of their last 12 as a favourite.
– The Eels have covered 6 of their last 9 night games.
– Newcastle are 12-23 ATS at night with a 21-14 under record since 2014, covering just 1 of their last 10.
– The Knights are 6-15 ATS at night on the road since 2014, including a 3-9 ATS record getting a start of 12.5 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Knights have been excellent over the past fortnight, but they are meeting the Eels at the worst possible time. The Eels are looking to cement a Top 4 spot and need to boost their four-and-against to ensure they control their own destiny. Eels to cover.
How It’s Shaping UpParramatta by 22
Best Bet
Parramatta -15.5 ($1.91)
Parramatta -15.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 40.5 ($1.88)
Over 40.5 ($1.88)
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