Sunday, August 13, 2pm (AEST) at Mt Smart Stadium, Auckland
The Raiders are making a late charge to play finals football, but face a massive danger game when they travel to Auckland to take on the Warriors. The Warriors have been accused of throwing the towel in against the Knights last week and will want to make a statement against the Green Machine. Warriors coach Stephen Kearney has benched Issac Luke in favour of Nathaniel Roache, while Ryan Hoffman makes his return from injury. The Raiders are unchanged from the side that upset the Sharks last week.
HistoryThe Raiders have won three straight against the Warriors, however the Warriors have won 9 of the last 11 against the Raiders at Mt Smart. The Raiders defeated the Warriors 20-8 in Canberra earlier in the year, with Joseph Leilua crossing for a double.
FormNew Zealand are 12th on the ladder with a 7-13 record and have reached a new lowpoint with coach Stephen Kearney accusing them of not trying in a loss to Newcastle. The Warriors have now lost five straight, the last four by 12 or more. The Warriors have conceded at least 24 points in eight of their last 11 matches. Canberra have rediscovered some form with three wins in their last four including a 30-12 smashup of premiers Cronulla. The Raiders are 10th on the ladder with a 9-11 record. Canberra have the fourth best attack in the NRL.
Key MatchupSimon Mannering v Elliott Whitehead: It’s hard not to feel sorry for Warriors stalwart Simon Mannering. He gives 100% every week, yet the same can’t be said for those around him. Mannering will make his 100 metres and 50 tackles a game, but needs more support. Whitehead was heavily involved in the Raiders win over the Sharks and is starting rediscover his 2016 form. The Raiders are starting to believe that they can play finals football and no one is leading the charge more than Whitehead. The Wolf is a big fan of the Englishman!
Stats That Matter– New Zealand are 7-13 ATS with a 10-10 total number while Canberra are 10-10 ATS with a 10-10 total record.
– Canberra have won three straight against New Zealand.
– The Warriors have won 9 of the last 11 against the Raiders at Mt Smart.
– Three of the last five matches have failed to break 38 points.
– The Warriors have covered 11 of their last 17 at Mt Smart, including 4 of their last 6 as an underdog.
– The Warriors are 3-8 ATS at home after scoring 12 points or fewer.
– Canberra are 31-16 ATS on the road since 2014 but are 9-6 ATS as a road favourite.
– Canberra are 10-4 ATS with a 9-5 over number on the road after scoring 30 points.
– The Raiders are 30-15 over in day games since 2014 including 15-7 over in day games.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is completely off the Warriors, but this shapes up as a massive banana peel match for Ricky Stuart’s men. The overs looks the safer play here. The Warriors have conceded at least 24 points in eight of their last 11 matches, while the Raiders don’t have too many problems scoring points, with the fourth best attack in the NRL.
How It’s Shaping UpCanberra by 6
Best Bet
Over 40 ($1.88)
Over 40 ($1.88)
Other Recommended Bets
Canberra 1-12 ($2.90)
Canberra 1-12 ($2.90)
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