Tournament History
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship is the European Tour's only pro-am. It's only been in existence since 2001 but it feels like an established tradition and it's an event that many look forward to with relish. A stellar line-up of pros and celebs do battle over three iconic links venues over four days, with those who make the cut after round three getting to play St Andrews for a second time in round four.
Event Structure
Each pro is partnered by one amateur and the teams of two each play the three separate links courses (detailed below) in rotation over the first three days. The cut is made after the third round, when the top 60 pros and ties and the top 20 teams progress to the final round at St Andrews on Sunday.
Course Details
St Andrews (Old Course), Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,307 yards
Hole averages in 2016 - 71.0
Affectionately known as the 'The Old Lady', St Andrews is the course every golfer wants to play. It hosts the Open Championship every five years. It's universally regarded as 'the home of golf' and, like all links courses, plays very differently depending on the weather. The par four 17th hole, known as the Road Hole, is the toughest on the course and a par there is always acceptable. Last year it averaged 4.61!
With the exception of the 10th and 18th holes, the back-nine is much tougher than the front-nine and the toughest stretch of the course is the final third. The 13th, 16th and 17th have all averaged over-par in each of the last eight years and the par four 15th has averaged over-par in seven of the last eight. With the exception of the 18th, every hole from the 11th in averaged par or worse last year. The greens at St Andrews are usually set to run at around 10 on the stimpmeter.
Carnoustie, Angus, Scotland
Par 72, 7,345 yards
Hole averages through three rounds in 2016 - 73.22
Carnoustie has been used for the Open Championship seven times to date and it will host it again next year. The last occasion was in 2007 when Padraig Harrington edged out Sergio Garcia in a play-off but it's best remembered as the venue where Jean Van De Velde lost the plot in 1999 when on the 72nd hole, he blew a three-shot lead after finding the Barry Burn.
Often referred to as Carnasty, Carnoustie is also famous for its treacherous pot bunkers and it's the toughest of the three venues faced this week. The greens at Carnoustie are expected to run at around 10.5 on the stimpmeter.
Kingsbarns, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland
Par 72, 7,227 yards
Hole averages through three rounds in 2016 - 70.86
The newest of the three venues and located just seven miles from St Andrews, Kingsbarns is a Kyle Philips design that opened to much acclaim in 2000. With generous fairways and few water hazards, it's not a stern test in good weather. The 2012 winner, Branden Grace, opened up with a round of 60 at Kingsbarns. The greens at Kingsbarns usually run at around 9.5 on the stimpmeter.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky Sports all four days starting at 13:00 on Thursday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - Tyrrell Hatton -23
2014 - Thorbjorn Olesen -18
2014 - Oliver Wilson -17
2013 - David Howell -23 (playoff)
2012 - Branden Grace -22
What Will it Take to Win the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship?
What you do off the tee here is largely irrelevant. Last year's winner ranked 15th for Driving Accuracy but he was the only one inside the top five to rank inside the top 40 for DA and that was the most accurate any winner had been off the tee in six years. David Howell, the 2013 champ, ranked 14th for Driving Distance and Branden Grace ranked 15th the year before but three of the last six winners have ranked in the 30s for DD and last year's winner, Tyrrell Hatton, ranked 47th.
The shock 2014 winner, Oliver Wilson, ranked in the 60s for Greens In Regulation but that was unusually high and five of the last seven winners have ranked inside the top-ten for GIR. Hatton ranked ninth.
Hatton ranked number one for Par 4 Scoring last year and five of the last nine winners have played the par fours better than anyone else so Par 4 Scoring is probably a better stat to ponder than GIR. And given how easily the course is set up, to accommodate the amateurs in the field, those that contend make lots and lots of birdies. Nobody made more than Hatton a year ago, or Olesen 12 months earlier, and Wilson, who made 19 birdies and an eagle three years ago, is the only winner in the last seven years to make less than 22 on the week. Hatton made 26 last year and Branden Grace made 27 in 2012!
This is nearly always a birdie-fest where going low is essential - Hatton equalled the course record of 62 at St Andrews last year - but the winner might just need to be a decent wind player too. At this early stage, a troublesome breeze is forecasted to annoy everyone all week.
Is There an Angle In?
Although he'd missed his three previous cuts in this event, Hatton had plenty of links form in the bag. He was placed in the 2015 Irish Open in foul conditions and prior to his victory here last season, he'd finished second in the Scottish Open and fifth in the Open Championship. All 16 event winners have been renowned links players so look closely at the results of the Irish and Scottish Open, the first two editions of the Paul Lawrie Match Play and, of course, the Open Championship, for clues. All of those events are also staged on links courses.
With the exception of Hatton, previous tournament form has counted for plenty too. Even though they were all outsiders, matched at triple-figure prices, the three winners before Hatton had all finished inside the top-three in the event before they won.
Being drawn at Carnoustie on Thursday looks a big plus. David Howell and Peter Uihlein fought out a play-off in 2013, having both begun the week there, the first five home in 2014 all played there on day one, the first three home in 2015 all began the week at Carnoustie and the winner, as well as the runner-up and the fourth, all played Carnoustie on Thursday last year. The last four winners all kicked off at Carnoustie and it has to be concluded that getting the hardest course out of the way is a positive. Being drawn there on day one has clearly been advantageous of late but I do have a caveat.
Playing the toughest course on day one if the weather's bad could be a bad break, given how low the scoring usually is, so the weather forecast will need monitoring. At the time of writing it looks set to blow hardest on Friday.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Having grown up playing links golf, players from the UK and Ireland have a sizable advantage and an incredibly good event record - 12 of the 16 winners to date have been English, Scottish or Irish.
Outsiders have had a great record of late too. Hatton went off at around the 60.00 mark, having been matched at 85.00 on the Monday, but he was well-fancied compared to a lot of winners! Olesen was matched at 240.00 12 months earlier and the year before that, playing on a sponsors invite, a woefully out of form Oliver Wilson was understandably matched at 999/1. David Howell was also matched at 240.00 before the off four years ago, Branden Grace was getting on for a triple-figure price in 2012, and Michael Hoey was a huge outsider in 2011.
In-Play Tactics
The first round leader/leaders might be worth close scrutiny given three of the last seven winners have been in front after round one and being up with the pace is usually key. Hatton sat tied for fifth and just three off the lead last year and Olesen trailed by four strokes after round one two years ago but the fact that they'd already played Carnoustie meant that they had the easiest of the three venues, Kingsbarns, still to play.
And four or five strokes is probably about as far down the early leaderboard as I'd like to go. We've now had 16 renewals and only two winners have been any further back than Olesen was after round one - Paul Lawrie in 2001 and Stephen Gallagher in 2004.
Market Leaders
It's a bit of a mystery that Rory McIlroy hasn't already won this event. The 2014 Open Champion has event form figures reading 3-8-2-53-2-2 and he finished third at the 2010 Open at St Andrews, despite shooting 80 in windy conditions in round two.
He played nicely over the weekend at Close House and but for Paul Dunne's brilliance he would have finally gotten off the mark for the year. He looks a decent price at around 6/1 but the record favourites have in the event is dire and, while I know he can play in blustery weather, I'm convinced he's seen to much better effect in benign conditions.
It's a bit of a race for second-favouritism with the 2012 winner, Branden Grace, brand new dad, Tommy Fleetwood, the defending champ, Hatton, and Irishman, Shane Lowry, are all trading between 25.00 and 28.00.
Grace comes here straight from the Presidents Cup where his International Team received quite a thrashing, Fleetwood can't have been practicing much given his son was born last Thursday, Hatton has the pressure of defending and his short fuse to overcome and the one I lie best of those four is Lowry.
In truth, Shane has been a bit disappointing over the last fortnight, putting himself in to contention twice but not delivering but he's more than capable and he's a great links player who won't mind the wind one iota. He hasn't got a tremendous record in the event but did finish third in 2013 and sixth three years ago.
Selections
I had absolutely no problem finding fancies for this one and I've ended up picking seven before the off.
Chris Wood has always been a fine links exponent and after a string of missed cuts in the tournament, his recent event figures are superb, reading 15-7-9-4. He comes here in decent form after a top-10 at the KLM Open and a fair tied 26th last week in the British Masters and 40.00 looked very fair.
Very few Americans play in this event but they have a decent record. Peter Uihlein lost a playoff to David Howell in 2013 and Brooks Koepka and Chris Stroud finished tied second two years ago and I'm happy to chance last year's Open Championship third, J.B Holmes, at a juicy price.
Ross Fisher is an infuriating character to back as he seems to give himself a lot of chances without winning. He's twice finished second in this event and he's another brilliant links player. He's no bigger than 50/1 on the High Street and 70.00 was just too big to ignore.
Eddie Pepperell reminds me of last year's winner. Like Hatton, he doesn't have great event form but he has a number of placed efforts this season and he has some great links form in the bag too. He missed the cut at the British Masters last week but I'm not unduly worried about that. He was in fine fettle before then and I thought he was worth risking at 75.00.
Callum Shinkwin traded at 1.01 to win the Scottish Open in July before failing to par the par five 18th for the win but that was enough to show us how well suited he is to links golf. He understandably missed the cut at the Open the following week but he's found some sort of equilibrium since given he finished inside the top-10 at the Czech Masters last month.
Young Canadian, Austin Connelly, has been a bit hit and miss but I thought he was worth chancing on the evidence of his eighth in Sweden back in April, his runner-up finish in the KLM Open three weeks ago and most importantly, his brilliant 14th at the Open Championship.
Although it's not a links course, Doha Golf Club is a windy exposed track where links specialists thrive so I was more than happy to take a chance on this year's Qatar Masters winner, Jeunghun Wang, at a juicy 200.00. He also won the Mauritius Open in extremely windy conditions last year and although he's had a poor year since his victory in Qatar, he has caught the eye recently with glimpses of form.
Selections:
Chris Wood @ 40.00
J.B Holmes @ 60.00
Ross Fisher @ 70.00
Eddie Pepperell @ 75.00
Callum Shinkwin @ 140.00
Austin Connelly @ 160.00
Jeunghun Wang @ 200.00
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