Georgia v Wales
Friday 6 October, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Draw specialists
Georgia are second-bottom of Group D and are winless in their eight matches, but they are a tough nut to crack and five of the eight have ended all-square.
One of the draws was in the reverse fixture 12 months ago in Cardiff when Georgia went behind early but fought back to equalise in the second half.

Big hole for Wales without Bale
The big news is the calf injury that has ruled Gareth Bale out of Wales' last two qualifiers, here and against the Republic of Ireland on Monday.
Wales are second in the group, four points behind Serbia and a point ahead of third-placed Ireland. Topping the group is not out of the question, but the consensus view is that Wales need at least four points from these last two qualifiers to secure a playoff spot as runners-up.
Chris Coleman had Bale pushed up with Sam Vokes and Tom Lawrence in a more attacking formation in last month's 1-0 home win over Austria but he seems likely to opt for a lone striker this time, with Hal Robson-Kanu in pole position. Ben Woodburn, who came on to score against Austria, may well get another chance if Wales are struggling to break the deadlock again.

Lack of confidence in favourites
Bale is the Welsh talisman and his absence is a big loss. The Real Madrid star is Wales' top scorer in this qualifying campaign with four goals and in the past five years they have won only once in 10 matches (competitive and friendly) without him in the starting line-up.
What's more, they are low-scoring without him - only six goals in those 10 Bale-less matches.
No wonder Wales have drifted from odds-on to 2.04 and they still look risky even at the longer odds.
Georgia drew 1-1 at home to Ireland last month - again coming back after conceding early - and that was the fourth of their eight qualifiers to finish with that scoreline.
Although Serbia (3-1) and Austria (2-1) have beaten them in Tbilisi in this campaign, other home results in recent years show it is a tough place to come (0-1 v Spain, 0-0 v France, 1-0 v Scotland).
Perhaps the best way for Wales backers to go for bigger odds in a probable low scorer is the win to nil at 3.00 but the draw is the most appealing option at 3.35.
Low goals looks likely
Under 2.5 goals is 1.55 and the case is obvious. Wales have been low-scoring in this campaign anyway - their last six games have had under 2.5 goals - and six of their last 10 matches without Bale have had unders.
Five of Georgia's eight qualifiers have had unders and Wales might have to score twice to force the score over that mark. Without Bale, it is questionable whether they can do that.

Recommended Bet
Back the draw at 3.35


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