Thursday October 5, 19:45
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Northern Ireland have achieved their primary goal, so now it's time to go for the bonus
Whatever happens from here on in, Northern Ireland boss Michael O'Neill has once again worked miracles. Having got his team to the knockout phase of Euro 2016, he has now secured a playoff spot in the World Cup qualifiers with two games to spare. Only a win over Germany would keep the automatic qualification dream alive, but the team's form in Belfast offers a glimmer of hope.
Northern Ireland have won all four of their qualifiers at Windsor Park, and they are yet to concede a single goal. Norway and the Czech Republic, who would have seen themselves as playoff contenders, both suffered 2-0 defeats in Belfast. In qualifying for the Euros, O'Neill also masterminded an unbeaten home record.
It's also worth bearing in mind that O'Neill's side didn't crumble against Germany in the reverse fixture. Having conceded two early goals, they refused to be swept aside in Hannover, and made chances that they failed to take.
Defender Aaron Hughes is out with a calf injury, and the hosts will miss his experience. The Hearts defender will be replaced by another Scotland-based stopper, Dunfermline's Callum Morris.
Bashed-up Bayern players keen to put their troubles behind them
It's fair to say things aren't going well for a chunk of the Germany squad. Bayern Munich's recent woes saw senior players effectively chase coach Carlo Ancelotti out of Dodge, and the Bundesliga champions have already fallen five points behind title rivals Borussia Dortmund. The likes of Jerome Boateng, Mats Hummels, Thomas Mueller and Joshua Kimmich have a point to prove, although both coach Jogi Loew and team manager Oliver Bierhoff have expressed their confidence that Bayern's problems won't spill over into international action.
Germany know that avoiding defeat in Belfast will book their ticket to next year's World Cup finals, and they have every reason to believe they can pick up at least a draw. They have won all eight of their qualifying matches so far, scoring 35 goals and conceding just two. They haven't dropped points in a World Cup qualifier since October 2012, and they have won 26 of their last 29.
Leipzig striker Timo Werner misses the match because of illness, Mario Gomez is injured, and Mueller is off form. That would be a problem for many nations, but Loew has attacking options. Sandro Wagner has been in good form for Hoffenheim, while Lars Stindl had a superb Confederations Cup campaign for Germany, scoring the winner in the final. At the other end of the field, Manuel Neuer is out for the rest of the year after foot surgery, so Bayer Leverkusen's Bernd Leno is likely to get the nod. Although he is a good shot-stopper, he isn't on great form, and he is prone to errors.
O'Neill's battlers can keep it close
Northern Ireland know that only a win will give them a chance of stealing top spot, but surely their only route to a shock result is to dig in, keep the game tight and hope to snatch something. If they try to play an expansive game, even with the raucous backing of the home crowd, they'll be shredded.
You can back Northern Ireland +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.98, which means you only fail to win if Germany win by two goals or more. When the teams met in the Euros, Germany only won 1-0, and that was away from the beneficial surroundings of Windsor Park. Germany only sneaked a 2-1 win in the Czech Republic in their last away qualifier, and this could be just as tight.
If hosts can hold world champions, unders might be the way to go
This is a variation on a theme. Unless Germany hit top gear and are unplayable (which could of course happen), Northern Ireland will look to contain for the most part. Their defending in competitive games in the last couple of years has been outstanding - in their last 23 matches excluding friendlies, they have leaked just 14 goals.
On that basis, I think Under 2.5 Goals is overpriced at 2.20.
Recommended Bets
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 2.20
Back Northern Ireland +1.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.98
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