The Safeway Open, formerly the Frys.com Open, marks the beginning of the 2017/2018 wraparound PGA Tour season. The event has been in existence since 2007 and this will be the fifth time it's kicked off the new season.
Venue
The North Course, Silverado Resort and Spa, Napa Valley, California.
Course Details
Par 72, 7166 yards
Stroke Index in 2016 - 70.83
After three years at Grey Hawk in Arizona and four at Cordevalle in San Martin, California, the event moved to the North Course at the Silverado Resort in Napa Valley, California, in 2014 so this will be the fourth year in-a-row the course has hosted.
The Robert Trent Jones Jr designed North Course opened in 1957 but it has been substantially reworked in recent years by Troon Golf and one of the venues co-owners, Johnny Miller.
In addition to the last three editions, Silverado hosted the Kaiser International between 1968 and 1976 and the Anheuser-Busch Golf Classic from 1977 to 1980 and some of the game's legends won here during those 13 years. Johnny Miller, Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson and Ben Crenshaw all tasted victor at Silverado and some big names also won here during the 14 years it saw Champions Tour golf when it hosted the Transamerica from 1989 to 2002, with the likes of Bernard Langer, Lee Trevino, Tom Kite and Dave Stockton all winning here.
This is what the 2014 winner, Sang Moon Bae, had to say about the venue.
"I really like this course because it's a classic. Always classic courses you need really good iron shots. Really narrow, small greens, a lot of undulation."
The yardage remains the same as last year but there's one slight change to last year's set-up with new closely mown areas around seven of the greens, including each of the last four.
The fairways are largely tree-lined and reasonably tight and the Poa-annua greens are expected to run at 11.5 - a fairly modest pace by PGA standards.
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live coverage on Sky Sports all four days at 22:00, starting on Thursday
Last Five Winners
2011 - Brendan Steele -18
2015 - Emiliano Grillo -15 (playoff)
2014 - Sang-moon Bae -16
2013 - Jimmy Walker -17
2012 - Jonas Blixt -16
What Will it Take to Win the Safeway Open?
We now have three years of course form to survey, so here's the top-three and ties at the last three editions with all the key stats - Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, Greens In Regulation, Scrambling, Putting Average and Strokes Gained Putting.
2016
1 Brendan Steele -18 DD 23 DA 5 GIR 21 SC 4 PA 8 SGP 6
2 Patton Kizzire -17 DD 35 DA 67 GIR 21 SC 21 PA 4 SGP 1
T3 Paul Casey -16 DD 10 DA 34 GIR 35 SC 2 PA 6 SGP 29
T3 Michael Kim -16 DD 50 DA 34 GIR 16 SC 12 PA 5 SGP 18
T3 Scott Piercy -16 DD 12 DA 29 GIR 7 SC 48 PA 8 SGP 4
T3 Johnson Wagner -16 DD 42 DA 29 GIR 9 SC 9 PA 9 SGP 8
2015
1 Emiliano Grillo -15 DD 37 DA 8 GIR 16 SC 5 PA 41 SGP 61
2 Kevin Na -15 DD 30 DA 5 GIR 10 SC 40 PA 12 SGP 51
T3 Jason Bohn -14 DD 64 DA 5 GIR 1 SC 71 PA 4 SGP 39
T3 Justin Thomas -14 DD 25 DA 67 GIR 2 SC 23 PA 11 SGP 19
T3 Tyrone Van Aswegen -14 DD 44 DA 31 GIR 10 SC 21 PA 12 SGP 8
2014
1 Sang-Moon Bae -15 DD 26 DA 45 GIR 6 SC 3 PA 18 SGP 44
2 Steven Bowditch -13 DD 17 DA 67 GIR 71 SC 2 PA 12 SGP 9
T3 Retief Goosen -12 DD 29 DA 49 GIR 50 SC 15 PA 14 SGP 1
T3 Martin Laird -12 DD 34 DA 16 GIR 9 SC 1 PA 39 SGP 8
T3 Hunter Mahan -12 DD 21 DA 37 GIR 6 SC 52 PA 6 SGP 16
T3 Hideki Matsuyama -12 DD 25 DA 8 GIR 3 SC 12 PA 22 SGP 45
T3 Bryce Molder -12 DD 64 DA 45 GIR 48 SC 15 PA 2 SGP 12
Despite the tree-lined fairways, accuracy from the tee appears only slightly more important than power but neither stat looks crucial. Scrambling was the key stat in 2014 and the second most important last year and now that there are more closely mown areas around the greens, I suspect it will be an even more important stat this time around.
It was a bit of a putting contest last year with the first six home, and nine of the first 12, all ranking inside the top-ten for Putting Average for the week.
Is There an Angle In?
This isn't an easy event to assess and I've struggled for a strong angle-in.
Previously, I've considered form at the Byron Nelson Championship, at the Four Seasons resort in Dallas, Texas, as it appeared to correlate quite nicely. The first and second here in 2014, Sang-Moon Bae and Steven Bowditch have both won there and Jason Bohn and Tyrone Van Aswegen, who finished tied for third here two years ago, both have bits of form in Dallas. Bohn has twice finished inside the top-ten there and Aswegen was 16th there in 2004. That doesn't look especially impressive but it was his best performance on the PGA Tour that year.
It's something to consider for sure but it didn't work out especially well last year and I wouldn't give it too much credence. Scott Piercy has a reasonable bank of form (fifth in 2013 his best effort) and Paul Casey sat second at halfway in his only start there before finishing 16th but in three visits, the winner here, Steele, has never made the cut.
Those that qualified from the Web.com Tour will want to get off to a flier in their first event. Some are playing on the PGA Tour for the very first time and some are returning having slipped off the Tour previously but all will be keen to get off to a fast start.
I'm not convinced it's an especially great angle in but Emiliano Grillo won here two weeks after winning the Web.com Tour Finals so here's a look at the 25 players to graduate via the Web.com Finals that finished on Monday and here are the 25 that qualified earlier because the finished inside the top-25 on the Web.com Tour money list.
Is There an Identikit Winner?
Jimmy Walker was fairly well-fancied three years ago (generally a 36.00 shot) but outsiders have a decent record of late. Moon and Bryce Molder, the 2011 winner, both went off at triple-figure prices, and the last two winners were both matched at 75.00 before the off, so don't be afraid to go for an outsider or two.
In-Play Tactics
Given we're over on the West Coast, the tournament isn't going to finish until the early hours of Monday morning in the UK but if the last two years are anything to go by it'll be worth staying up to trade.
In addition to both Justin Rose and Brendan Steele trading at around 2.50 earlier in the event, three players were matched at long-odds on at the death in 2015. Jason Bohn and Kevin Na both hit a low of 1.50 and the eventual winner, Grillo, was matched at 1.07 at the first playoff hole before he missed from three feet for the win. He did go on to win but it wasn't hard to back him back after the miss.
In last year's edition, Paul Casey was matched at 2.30 and Piercy just 2.00 before we'd even got to Sunday and in addition to those two trading so short, Johnson Wagner also hit a low of 2.30 and the runner-up, Patton Kizzire, was matched at just 1.60.
With three reasonably tough holes (13, 14 and 15) preceding three easy finishing holes, there's all sorts of scope for trading at Silverado and if the leaderboard looks tight going into Sunday's final round, a late night's trading may well reap rich rewards again.
We've only had three renewals here so far but it's already shown to be a venue where winning from off the pace is perfectly possible.
Sang-Moon Bae was always on the premises in 2014 and he was four clear after 54 holes but the runner-up, Bowditch, was tied for 80th after round one and he was still six adrift and tied for 36th at halfway. Grillo was six back and tied for 19th at halfway two years and the first nine home were all outside the top-five through 36 holes and last year's winner, Steele, was nine strokes adrift at halfway and still four back with a round to go. Laying the leaders and watching for the closers has been the way to go over the last two years.
Market Leaders
Tony Finau closed out the 2016/17 season nicely with a seventh placed finish at both the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship. He has respectable course form figures reading 12-32-26, he's great putter on Poa annua and he won in California on the Web.Com Tour back in 2014 but he's still only once to date on the PGA Tour (the 2016 Puerto Rico Open) and he looks short enough to me in an event that doesn't favour the favourites.
Phil Mickelson finished eighth here 12 months ago, despite a shaky start, and historically he loves an early season tournament in his home state but can we really go taking less than 20/1 about a 47-year-old without a victory in more than four years? I can't.
Webb Simpson looks a short price too given how rarely he wins and that he's missed the cut here in each of the last two years and although he does have course form, having finished seventh last year having lost in a playoff two years ago, Kevin Na is even harder to get across the line.
Selection
In stark contrast to the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship (previewed here) I've had a devil of a job finding anyone I fancy here.
I've had a very small bet on Chesson Hadley, who's been in terrific form on the Web.com Tour, at 60/1 with the Sportsbook. He's been scrambling and putting well but that's probably going to be it. Should I add anyone else once the market matures I'll update Twitter before the off.
Recommended Bet
Chesson Hadley @ 60/1
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