World Cup Group F Qualifier
Thursday, 19:45
Live on ITV
Russia-bound Lions yet to convince
England are set to qualify for next year's World Cup as comfortable Group F winners but this is far from a vintage Three Lions team with more questions than answers set to emerge in the build-up to Russia 2018.
It's easy to forget that just two years ago England concluded their Euro 2016 qualifying campaign with 10 wins out of 10, a goal difference of plus 28, an average of just over three goals per game scored, and that they finished ahead of Slovenia by 14 points. All this before being dumped out of the tournament by huge outsiders Iceland.
And unfortunately the stats suggest that Gareth Southgate's men are now a worse outfit than the one Roy Hodgson guided to yet another tournament failure.
In a very similar-quality group to Euro 2016 qualifying - with two nations being exactly the same - the Three Lions are now averaging just two goals scored per game, they've won two fewer games after eight matches, and even with victory over Slovenia on Thursday night they are likely to finish just nine or 10 points ahead of Srečko Katanec's men.
Even results this time around against Slovenia and Lithuania have been less impressive than two years ago. Hodgson's men won 3-2 in Slovenia and 4-0 at home to Lithuania. Those same fixtures this campaign produced a goalless draw and just a 2-0 victory respectively. And just last month Southgate's men recorded a massively flattering win in Malta (three goals scored in final few minutes) before an edgy 2-1 victory over Slovakia.
Thank goodness then for Harry Kane. One of the hottest strikers in Europe goes into Thursday's qualifier in blistering form having scored a remarkable 13 goals in his last eight starts for club and country. His Tottenham teammate Dele Alli is suspended however, while Fabian Delph, Phil Jones, and Jamie Vardy have either withdrawn from the squad, or weren't included, due to injury.
Poor away form has cost Slovenia
Slovenia still have a tiny hope of finishing second in the group but defeat at Wembley on Thursday night will effectively end their World Cup dream with Slovakia - already one point ahead of them in the table - having a home game against Malta on Sunday.
Katanec's men are paying heavily for a poor away campaign. While they are unbeaten in their own country and are yet to concede a single goal in four qualifiers, including holding England to a goalless draw 12 months ago, Slovenia have so far lost on their travels to both Scotland and Slovakia while they could manage just a 2-2 draw in Lithuania.
And it's a pattern that mirrored how they performed during Euro 2016 qualifying with the Slovenians losing all three away games against their main group rivals - England, Switzerland, and Estonia.
Atletico Madrid goalkeeper Jan Oblak is Slovenia's star name but keep an eye out also for talented midfielders Jasmin Kurtic and Josip Ilicic who have both played prominent roles in Atalanta's good start in Serie A, while striker Tim Matavz enjoyed a terrific start to the season with club side Vitesse Arnhem, scoring in each of the Dutch side's first six games.
Whisper it, but England look a decent price
I'm reluctant to go overboard about this current England squad but at 1.36 at home to Slovenia I have no hesitation in saying they actually look a generous price to win on Thursday night (the away side can be backed at 12.50 with the Draw trading at 5.40).
Much of that is to do with Slovenia's dreadful away form. The 55th ranked nation in the world have recorded just four away wins in the last four years, those victories coming against Cyprus (currently 70th in the world), Lithuania (120th), San Marino (204th), and Malta (191st).
But it's England's form at Wembley in such games that really catches the eye. The Three Lions have now won 13 consecutive home qualifiers, scoring 40 goals in the process while conceding just three times. They've faced some poor teams in that sequence admittedly, but they've also faced some decent ones and always got the job done. They are very worthy favourites to make it 14 consecutive home wins.
Of course, odds of 1.36, regardless of us viewing them as generous, isn't the type of price that some like to have a single wager on, so instead my advice would be to back England/England at 2.10 in the Half Time/Full Time market.
England have scored first half goals in 10 of their 13 consecutive home wins mentioned above, and given that Slovenia really need to take all three points to have any chance of qualifying for next year's World Cup then we can expect them to come with an attacking mentality. This might not be as cagey as these matches tend to be then, and I can see Southgate's men making an early breakthrough.
Goals markets spot on so go dutch instead
It's impossible to disagree with the Under/Over 2.5 Goals market which effectively is a coin toss with both options trading at around the 2.00 mark. So let's leave it alone.
Instead take a chance on the 2-0 (6.40) and 3-0 (10.00) Correct Scores, or if you prefer to dutch back them the odds of return are 3.90.
Slovenia don't win away from home, and they almost never score against decent opposition. England always win these home qualifiers, they rarely concede (just three in 13 matches remember), and they averaged three goals scored per game during Euro 2016 qualifying, and are currently averaging two goals scored per game during this campaign.
Odds of 3.90 about the most logical outcome make quite a lot of appeal.
Recommended Bets
Back England HT/England FT @ 2.10
Dutch Back 2-0 & 3-0 Correct Scores @ 3.90 (best bet)
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