Napoli v Inter
Saturday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
We should be all set for a Saturday night spectacular this weekend, as the leaders Napoli face what might just be their biggest challenge of the season so far, with Luciano Spalletti and Inter in town. Inter scraped a win in the Milan derby on Sunday night, while Napoli controlled their game against Roma last week, before falling pretty valiantly at Manchester City.
Given the publicity given Napoli's high octane start, Inter's form seems to have slipped under the radar, and while they were fortunate to beat Milan with an iffy late penalty, they've dropped points on only one occasion, and have very nearly matched Napoli's perfect beginning.
This weekend will tell us a lot: will Napoli be derailed, or will they look more and more like Champions in waiting, swatting away every challenger? Napoli are 1.67 for the win, with Inter trading at 5.40, and given that the Nerazzurri are free of any European commitments, I just can't ignore the way that they're being undervalued.
A narrative seems to have developed in which Inter's start is regarded as fortunate, whereas Napoli have done no wrong, and I don't buy that, Spalletti is more than good enough to match Maurizio Sarri tactically, and to produce the kind of performance that could nullify Napoli. With the exception of Juventus, Inter are the likeliest team to be able to stop them.
Lorenzo Insigne picked up a thigh injury in Tuesday's defeat to Manchester City and will probably be replaced by Adam Ounas, while the fatigue is starting to show for Dries Mertens.
I won't back Inter at 5.40, but will lay Napoli at 1.70, as I think that's too short against a team that is good enough to stop them, and to hurt that far from solid defence that could eventually undermine them.
The last time Inter won a Serie A trip to the San Paolo was precisely 20 years ago, October 1997, followed by three draws and eight defeats. Will I get poor opposing Napoli this season? Maybe. Is it the logical thing to do? Absolutely.
Recommended Bet
Lay Napoli to beat Inter Milan @ 1.70

Torino v Roma
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
The final two tips this week are fairly predictable for regular readers of this column, but hopefully successful, which is all that I care about.
My love for following goals in Torino games has been well documented, and I'm going to stick with that as they face Roma this weekend. Roma will be smarting a little after being closed down by Napoli last week, but they're likely to come out firing, and that's something that Torino ALWAYS do.
Torino's last five Serie A games have each gone Over 3.5 Goals, and given the history between these clubs, one in which the last five meetings have averaged 3.6 goals per game, it feels as if we're on fairly safe ground this weekend.
It's amazing that a manager who was as pragmatic as Sinisa Mihajlovic has turned into the crazy funster of Serie A, but I'm never sure that the stats are by design: he'd love to run Torino as a well-oiled defensive machine, but knows that he doesn't have the players to achieve that, and so he's a pragmatist rather than a footballing fantasist.
Roma are in a strange place, playing well, but beaten in their big tests, and I think they'll go to Turin and win, but it may be a high-scoring journey. If it's anything like their 3-3 thriller at Chelsea in the Champions League midweek, we are in for some entertainment - and a potentially-lucrative bet.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Torino v Roma @ 2.40

Lazio v Cagliari
Sunday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport 3 and Live Betfair Video
I was cursing myself last weekend for tipping goals in the Juve v Lazio game, rather than simply backing Lazio, but I bottled that bet, and paid the price for Paulo Dybala's late missed penalty. Still, his miss against Atalanta a couple of weeks earlier had done this column a favour, and so there can't be too many complaints.
Only leaders Napoli have scored more than Lazio's 21 goals so far this Serie A season, and it's hard to see how Cagliari can stand in the way of Ciro Immobile and co.
Lazio have scored four goals in each of their last two Olimpico meetings against the team from Sardinia, and Cagliari have already shown this season that they're no great shakes. They've lost four in a row, and don't look defensively equipped to deal with Lazio's firepower.
Their best chance would be if this was one of those sleepy Sunday afternoon games, but the fact that it's at night heightens the jeopardy. Cagliari fired Coach Massimo Rastelli this week, bringing back Diego Lopez for his second stint in Sardinia following his very brief spell at Palermo.
Lazio will return from that win against Juve wanting to perform for their fans, and that will make it a long night for a team that has lost its last six at this venue against this opposition. In short, it'll be Lazio, comfortably, in another soar-away performance.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Lazio v Cagliari @ 2.30

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