Thursday October 19, 20:05
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Everton in a tailspin as Koeman feels the heat
It takes a lot of investment to move the needle in modern-day football, and in some cases it can take tens of millions of pounds just to stand still. As I wrote on this website in July, Everton were always going to find life tough if they couldn't find a way of compensating for the loss of star striker Romelu Lukaku, and the lack of a regular goalscorer has really hurt the Toffees.
There's a lot to like about Everton boss Ronald Koeman, but at present he is sliding towards the exit at Goodison Park. His side are just two points above the Premier League dropzone, and in the Europa League they have claimed just a point from two games, having blown a lead late on at home to Apollon Limassol.
Everton fans have been angered by a lack of grit and determination shown against the bigger teams in the Premier League (they lost 3-0 to Tottenham and 4-0 to Manchester United), and a lack of guile shown against less experienced sides like Brighton. Had Wayne Rooney not found a late equaliser at the Amex Stadium on Sunday, Koeman might not be preparing for this game against Lyon.
Koeman has some big decisions to make, with a game against Arsenal at Goodison looming large on the horizon. A clutch of players are still sidelined, including Yannick Bolasie, Seamus Coleman, Ross Barkley and James McCarthy.
Lyon on a high after Monaco mayhem
Just as Everton have had to adjust to losing their best player, Lyon have had to adapt to life without Alexandre Lacazette, who finally flew the nest this summer and landed at Arsenal. Les Gones also lost their first-choice central midfield pairing, as Maxime Gonalons went to Roma, and Corentin Tolisso became Bayern Munich's record signing.
Lyon are used to such losses though, and they used the money wisely. Mariano Diaz has shone in attack since arriving from Real Madrid, Bertrand Traore was brought in from Chelsea after a great loan spell at Ajax, and Brazilian defender Marcelo should settle down the back four in time.
Lyon's best player this season was already at the club. Attacking midfielder Nabil Fekir has stepped up to lead the side - as Andy Brassell explains further in his excellent analysis of Lyon - and has already scored seven Ligue 1 goals and set up four more. On Friday night, Fekir won a topsy-turvy game against Monaco with a free-kick deep into stoppage time, and if he continues this blistering form throughout the season, he may well end up in the French squad for the World Cup.
Mariano Diaz and Ferland Mendy will miss the game with injury, and coach Bruno Genesio has named a young squad. However, I'd expect him to field a strong side, as Lyon chase their first win, having drawn 1-1 with Apollon Limassol and Atalanta.
Lyon the value against struggling hosts
I'm surprised to see Lyon as 2.86 outsiders for the win here. Their only defeat on the road this season was at PSG, they just beat Monaco, and Everton are low on confidence.
Lyon have a few players out but still have plenty of quality, with Fekir, Memphis Depay and Bertrand Traore all capable of turning a game with a moment of brilliance. Everton have won just two of their last 11 matches in all competitions, and those victories were against Championship side Sunderland in the League Cup and rock-bottom Bournemouth in the Premier League.
I'll happily back the visitors with a bit of insurance.
Goals likely at Goodison
Lyon have scored ten goals in their last four games, but have conceded nine in the same timeframe. Bruno Genesio's side have only drawn a blank twice this season. They have already been involved in three 3-3 draws, which is incredible at this stage of a season.
Everton are struggling to dominate defences without Lukaku, but it's worth noting that six of their last eight games have featured at least three goals. That outcome is available at 1.82, while Both Teams To Score can be backed at 1.64.
Lyon skipper can be a threat
Given that he is in fine goalscoring form, Nabil Fekir looks to be overpriced at 2.96 to find the net, while former Manchester United forward Memphis Depay is 3.50.
Wayne Rooney is Everton's top scorer, and with Oumar Niasse not eligible for the Europa League and youngsters Domini Calvert-Lewin and Nikola Vlasic not yet firing, the burden once again falls on his shoulders. Rooney has scored twice in his last three games, and is 2.66 to score on Thursday night.
Recommended Bet
Back Lyon Draw No Bet at 2.04
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