Millwall v Birmingham: Cagey encounter on the cards in the capital

Millwall v Birmingham

Saturday 21st October, 17:30

Live on Sky Sports

Wounded Lions

Millwall were left frustrated after falling to a second consecutive Championship loss at capital rivals Brentford last weekend. Not for the first time this season, the Lions will be wondering how they've managed to leave empty handed having mustered up 19 shots, with six on-target as they went down 1-0 at Griffin Park.

Millwall boss Neil Harris claimed his team 'threw away a point - if not three' and it's become a familiar theme for the Lions. Harris' troops are amongst the top-half across all the major performance data metrics but profligate finishing - including a missed penalty last weekend - has stunted progress.

Lee Gregory's strike partner Steve Morison has been given an outside chance of returning for Saturday evening's tussle. Should he miss out again, Aiden O'Brien is favourite to start in attack once more with Tom Elliott and Fred Onyedinma waiting in the wings. Shaun Williams and Byron Williams remain out long-term.

Blues control under Cotterill

Steve Cotterill started life as Birmingham boss in the best possible way, beating previous league leaders Cardiff 1-0 at St Andrew's. Blues nullified their high-flying visitors with Cheikh N'Doye, Maikel Kieftenbeld and David Davis prominent performers in midfield with Marc Roberts and Michael Morrison exceptional at the heart of defence.

City produced a hard-working, physical and committed performance, the type of which has been lacking for large swathes of the season thus far. And with £6.5m signing Jota back to full fitness, plus Emilio Nsue back in contention, Cotterill now has options ahead of their weekend trip to London.

However, goalkeeper David Stockdale remains sidelined and Carl Jenkinson is also sidelined as Birmingham bid to extend a recent run of W2-D1-L1 in the Championship here.

Millwall fair favourites at home

Birmingham 3.60 are unbeaten in their last nine trips to Millwall (W5-D4-L0) with the visitors plundering 19 goals in their most recent five trips to The Den. And having suffered only one defeat in 12 away days (W5-D6-L1) at promoted clubs since 2013/14, the Blues may appeal to some punters at a nice price.

City went W2-D6-L3 at bottom-half clubs during 2016/17 but Cotterill's charges have secured just a solitary point in six road trips this term, losing seven of their last 10 games as guests in Championship action. With Birmingham rooted to the bottom-four across all the major data metrics, I'm happy to look elsewhere.

Back-to-back defeats have stalled Millwall's solid start to life back in the second-tier with the Lions previously unbeaten in four (W2-D2-L0). Nevertheless, the Lions have claimed three wins from their last four outings at The Den and look fair 2.26 favourites to enhance that record here.

Stats suggest a tight encounter

It's been feast or famine for Millwall when viewing the goals markets thus far. The Lions have seen 4/12 (33%) Championship contests feature Over 3.5 Goals winners whilst 6/12 (50%) tussles have failed to produce more than a solitary strike, including three of their last five fixtures.

Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at 1.79 for Saturday's showdown and makes most appeal with Birmingham seeing 8/12 (67%) league games prove profitable in the same market, including four of their six away days.

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