Saturday, 15:00
Could Burnley spring a fifth away day upset?
The Clarets have followed up a shock opening day victory at Stamford Bridge with points at Wembley and Anfield before dispatching of Everton in their last outing on the road. For a side that earned just seven points on their travels last season, to go unbeaten against four sides that ranked among the top five at home in 2016/17 has been nothing short of remarkable.
The odds, however, suggest that they will need a minor miracle to stretch that record this weekend against a City side that, this time around, look like maintaining a near faultless start to the season where they failed in Pep Guardiola's first at the club. Three points better off than at this stage last year already, there's no obvious weakness in the ranks where last season there were plenty.
Ederson has looked a substantial upgrade on Claudio Bravo, while the full-backs have also offered the energy that the manager desires in order to really overload their opponents in the final third. That said, with Benjamin Mendy sidelined, makeshift left-back Fabian Delph will certainly be targeted in the coming weeks and months, as would Danilo who prefers to operate on the opposite flank.
Clarets hope to give former Villa man the blues
There were signs against both Stoke and Napoli that the England international, while a willing and determined stand-in, certainly isn't entirely comfortable in his new role. For a Burnley side that does rely on crosses into the box to supply target man Chris Wood, there's little doubt as to where they will focus any rare opportunities to counter.
It's a task that may fall upon Johan Berg Gudmondsson, who made a real impact from the bench against West Ham last weekend and should come in for Scott Arfield. It's a move that would allow Robbie Brady to revert to his natural position on the left, in turn offering more balance both with and, crucially, without the ball. The Iceland international delivered the cross that saw the aforementioned Wood equalise last time out and will be encouraged to run Delph to the byline as he did to Cresswell in that instance.
There's certainly reason for optimism for the travelling fans in terms of troubling an improved City defence. While the Citizens may have conceded just four goals this season, they've all come against sides in the bottom five of the table as things stand, proving they remain far from infallible.
Burnley, who have been a stubborn opponent to the league leaders under Sean Dyche to say the least, have scored in each of the last four meetings between these sides, with both matches ending 2-1 to Guardiola's charges last season. A repeat of that scoreline is all the way out at 11.00, with odds on both teams scoring as high as [2.55].
However, the tougher task will be keeping a rampant City attack at bay at the opposite end, reflected in odds of 23.00 on the visitors to keep a clean sheet. Even for an organised and rigid defenaive unit that will prove near impossible, though there is value in the unders market for goals in the game as a whole.
Chances of another City romp more remote
It's true that it's not just one City forward in fine form this season but near enough all of them. However Burnley, from a defensive standpoint in particular, are nowhere near as naive or flappable as the likes of Stoke, Palace, Watford or even Liverpool, who have all been hit for five or more by this fearsome attacking force. The Clarets have conceded just four goals in their last seven league games and simply don't crumble like many other teams in the division. As such, odds on under 3.5 goals, which has been the case in the last three between these sides, at 2.10 are long.
As far as the goalscorer market is concerned, Sergio Aguero is the obvious choice. Having sat out of the last two matches following injury he's almost certain to return and scored three of City's four goals against Burnley last season. At 1.40 to score at any time, however, there's just no real value. Instead the manner and numbers with which City attack mean that the wingers are almost as likely to score as the strikers so there's a better price on the likes of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane (both 11/10 on the Betfair Sportsbook), with the former scoring five goals in his last five appearances and likely to keep his place having been withdrawn with 20 minutes to spare in the week.
Recommended Bets
Under 3.5 goals @ 2.10
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