Wednesday October 18 19:45
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2017/18 season teething problems at Estadio da Luz
For the last few years Benfica have had a policy of selling their most valuable players to balance the books whilst replacing them with younger, lesser-known versions, mostly recruited from the South American market. It's worked pretty well over the years, up till...now.
The sales of keeper Ederson (Manchester City), centre back Viktor Lindelof (Manchester United) and right-back Nelson Semedo (Barcelona) kept the accountants happy but Manager Rui Vitoria has struggled without them.
Seventeen points in the league from eight matches may not seem that disastrous by most standards. But for the Portuguese Superliga it doesn't cut the mustard when rivals Sporting Lisbon are on 20 points and Porto on 22.
Their Champions League campaign has been even worse with a 2-1 home defeat by CSKA Moscow being followed up by a 4-0 defeat by Basel. At least Vitoria has a full squad of players to call on, with the exception of suspended right-back Andre Almeida.
Mourinho knows this place well
There's history between Jose Mourinho and Benfica. They were the first team to offer him the role of First Team Manager back in 2000 but he wasn't best impressed as they stalled over offering him a new contract despite positive results and he resigned when he gave them an ultimatum and the club 'folded', to use a Poker term.
As Porto Manager a couple of years later, he went head-to-head with Benfica for the Portuguese title and came out on top.
His current United side is looking extremely dangerous. Some will feel a 0-0 at Anfield at the weekend was a wasted opportunity but Mourinho will know how valuable that point might just be come May.
The aforementioned Lindelof may get a game if Eric Bailly doesn't recover from injury but a near certainty is the presence of another former Benfica man in United's line-up: Nemanja Matic.
Marouane Fellaini and Michael Carrick are injury doubts.
Things could be about to get worse for Benfica
There's a tradition in Portugal of eating hot dogs and steak sandwiches washed down with plenty of lager, from the food trucks parked just outside the stadiums before a match. Fans talk about the match and how confident they are of a good result. Whatever they'll be talking about tonight, it won't be a confident speech about how it's a simple home win for their beloved Benfica.
The 1.88 on United to win the game is a perfectly good bet. They're yet to lose a match this season and have won both their Champions League ties so far convincingly: 3-0 at homer to Basel, 4-1 against CSKA.
But it's worth pushing the boat out here. They've kept eight clean sheets from 12 matches in all competitions this season and with the exception of the excellent Brazilian striker Jonas, the United back four won't be having sleepless nights over Benfica's forwards.
The visitors could easily go back home not just with the win but yet another clean sheet, as well.
Romelu small, Henrik big
Of course if you think Benfica will improve on their record of scoring at least once in 12 of their 13 matches so far this season, you'll be interested to know that Jonas is available at 21/10 to score anytime. He has 10 goals already this season and his chances of 11 are boosted by being the team's penalty-taker. Fellow striker Haris Seferovic, who played for Switzerland at this very Stadium last Tuesday, is 11/4.
For United the usual suspects are all there at the top of the market. Romelu Lukaku looks desperately short at 8/13 given this could be a low-scoring affair with Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford both at 15/8, though logic would dictate only one of the two is likely to start.
A more interesting option might be Henrikh Mkhitarayan at 12/5. He already scored away in Moscow this term and this looks like the sort of game where his guile and ability to pop up in unusual positions may seem him at least have a couple of chances.
Recommended Bet
1pt Back Manchester United to win to nil @ 2/1
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