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Match Odds: Chelsea 1.37, Watford 10.00, The Draw 5.60.
Shock on the cards?
At the start of the campaign, you would have had this one down as an easy home victory. But eight games into the campaign, Watford sit one place - and two points - ahead of Chelsea in the Premier League table. Furthermore, Chelsea have lost their last two in the Premier League, played poorly against Roma in midweek, while Watford defeated Arsenal last weekend. Suddenly, it feels like a shock could be on the cards.
Chelsea also have major problems in terms of fitness, particularly in central midfield. N'Golo Kante is still out, Danny Drinkwater is too, David Luiz played there in midweek but limped off in the second half, and Tiemoue Bakayoko is considered doubtful too. Cesc Fabregas is a surefire starter, with Bakayoko seemingly the most likely to join him.
The limited options here will also encourage Antonio Conte to play a 3-4-3 system rather than the 3-5-2 he's played on occasion recently - he simply doesn't have enough central midfield options to make that system work. This could be a positive, as Conte admitted his decision to play 3-5-2 against Roma didn't work well.
Victor Moses is another out, so Davide Zappacota will continue on the right, while Gary Cahill might be replaced by Antonio Rudiger. Andreas Christensen will continue in the backline, while Pedro Rodriguez should return on the right.
How bold will Watford be?
Marco Silva, meanwhile, has three major decisions. The first is what system to play - he switched to 3-4-3 for the game against Arsenal last weekend, intending to match the Gunners' system. Yes, Watford won 2-1, but they didn't play well until they reverted to 4-2-3-1, and Silva will be well aware of that. Nevertheless, the 3-4-3 still seems more likely here.
Second, he must decide how much Watford should press. Against Arsenal they stood off so much that the 3-4-3 looked more like a 5-4-1, and the opposition defence was allowed too much time on the ball. Having seen how Roma pressed high and caused problems in midweek, Silva will surely want his players to be more proactive and force mistakes high up the pitch.
Third, he must choose who to play upfront. Andre Gray offers tremendous speed but offered little against Arsenal - despite being up against Per Mertesacker - and the Hornets' improvement after Troy Deeney's introduction was obvious. If Watford can get him up against Cesar Azpilicueta, who might be uncomfortable against a traditional old-school English centre-forward, Watford could get some joy.
Wide battles
Out wide, Silva needs to be brave with his wide players. Left-sided Richarlison is a hugely dangerous attacker but should be attacking on the outside of Azpilicueta rather than battling against the wing-back, Zappacosta. Roberto Pereyra, meanwhile, could find space outside Cahill or Rudiger. The two wing-backs, Kiko Femenia and Jose Holebas, are good enough to take on Marcos Alonso and Zappacosta in head-to-head duels.
The problem for Watford, though, is the threat of Eden Hazard, who opened his account for the season in midweek. Silva can't leave him for Watford's immobile centre-backs to track, and therefore one of Tom Cleverley and Abdoulaye Doucouré may have to play more cautiously in order to minimize space between the lines. The threat of Fabregas, too, means Watford will be wary of keeping a very high defensive line, as long balls in behind will cause problems.
I fancy Watford to cause problems here. Chelsea aren't in good form, will be tired after their Wednesday night ding-dong and their injury problems mean they won't be able to rotate. I'll back both teams to score, at 2.00.
Recommended Bet
Both teams to score at 2.00
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