Thursday 19 October, 18:00
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Europa League providing succour for wounded Arsenal
Arsenal suffered another bruising defeat at the weekend, as they fell to a 2-1 loss at Watford. The post-match comments of Hornets' striker Troy Deeney may well have stung too - Deeney effectively accused the Gunners of being soft and easy to physically and mentally dominate. It's a hard thing for Arsenal to disprove - this season they have already lost at Liverpool, Stoke and Watford in the league.
Thank heavens then for the Europa League, in which Arsenal have found their touch. They swept aside FC Koln 3-1, and then won 4-2 at Belarussian side BATE Borisov. Theo Walcott and Jack Wilshere both shone against BATE, and the competition gives them a chance to rap on Arsene Wenger's door (as in knock on the door, not launch into a Jay-Z tribute act outside his office).
Wenger will once again rest key players for this, but that policy hasn't cost him so far. David Ospina will likely be restored in goal, while Olivier Giroud may get a chance to show he should be spearheading the Arsenal attack instead of his French compatriot Alexandre Lacazette.
Crvena Zvezda keen to cause another upset
You may know them as Red Star Belgrade, but whatever you call them, Crvena Zvezda have a proud European tradition that they are trying to uphold. Red Star were European champions in 1991 - they beat Chris Waddle's Marseille in the final - and before the breakup of Yugoslavia, they were one of the most decorated and powerful clubs in the country.
They were deposed as Serbian champions last season by city rivals Partizan, but they have made a strong start to this season. Domestically, they are four points clear at the top of the league, and in Europe they have already picked up some notable scalps. In the Europa League qualifiers they raised eyebrows by knocking out Russian side Krasnodar on away goals, and prior to that they beat Sparta Prague home and away. In the group stage, they drew 1-1 with BATE Borisov and scrapped their way to a 1-0 win at out-of-form Koln.
If Crvena Zvezda want to take inspiration from history, they can go back to the 1978/79 season. Red Star dumped Arsenal out of the UEFA Cup, beating them 1-0 in Belgrade and drawing 1-1 in north London.
Arsenal a touch too short against determined hosts
Arsenal are trading at 1.82 for the win, and while they have done well in the competition so far, I'm not sure that's a price we can get too excited about. Much depends on the team Arsene Wenger selects, and it's worth noting that Crvena Zvezda are unbeaten at home in Europe this season, and beat both Sparta Prague and Krasnodar in Belgrade.
Gunners to play another open game in Europe
So far, Arsenal have won 3-1 and 4-2 in the Europa League, and on the road they have kept just one clean sheet this season. Crvena Zvezda have bashed in 11 goals in their last three games at home, and in the Europa League they have scored in all five of their home matches.
Given that evidence, I fancy backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.82.
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Back Over 2.5 Goals at 1.82
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