Friday October 20 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
Hammers on a decent run
After considerable summer investment, 15th place is not where Hammers' fans want to be in the league table. But that position is actually a little misleading. They've played just three home games to five on the road, and are actually on a decent run of form - two wins, two draws and just the one defeat (against high-flying Tottenham). If they keep that up, they'll steadily move up the table to a more respectable position.
In any case, they're certainly not seen as relegation candidates. Despite their lowly position, they're 8.20 eighth favourites for the drop.
But they need to cut out their indiscipline. Andy Carroll's needless red card for two bookings for leading with the elbow was the second time this season they've had a player sent off away from home before half time. Earlier in the season Marko Arnautovic pulled a similar stunt at Southampton.
At least West Ham have a decent squad these days to make up for Caroll's absence. Andre Ayew or Diafra Sakho are the two most obvious players to deputise for the big man.
Knockaert and Groß key men for the visitors
Despite being one place higher in the table, Brighton are just 2.40 for the drop, third favourites. That's understandable given they're a promoted side with what looks like on paper, a Championship-standard squad.
Their best player this season has arguably been German midfielder Pascal Groß, who has score twice and put in some impressive all-action displays. But at home to Everton, it was Anthony Knockaert who came to the party at last, scoring Brighton's goal. Last season's EFL Championship Player of the Year made a slow start to the season, partly because he bizarrely had to wait till the third game of the season to start a match, despite last season's heroics. They need more from of the same from him.
Brighton have an indiscplined player of their own in the ranks. Striker Tomer Hemed is still serving a suspension after an off-the-ball incident against Newcastle a few weeks ago.
Should the Hammers be odds-on?
West Ham's home record against Brighton is excellent. They've beaten them six of the last seven times they've been the hosts. But most of those matches were well over ten years ago, in a different stadium with totally different players involved so it's all of little relevance.
The 1.90 on a West Ham win is one of those prices that looks fair. Some would argue that a side that low down after a sample of eight matches doesn't deserve to be odds-on against anyone in a league this competitive. Then again, it's also easy to argue that West Ham are a far more experienced team at this level, have much better players and that home advantage is crucial in games such as this. The draw is 3.55 with the odds compilers chalking up the away win at [5.1.]
One scoreline stands out
But the better question is: if West Ham are to win, what sort of win would it be? They're not really a high-scoring team and despite being involved in a couple of 3-2s this season (they lost both), their games tend to be low-scoring, slow-burners. Their two wins so far were 1-0 and 2-0 and looking back at last season, there were a further seven wins that came by a 1-0 scoreline.
That's the one to go with. Now is not the time of the season for impressive cavalier wins, it's the time for hard-fought battling and 7.40 is a pretty decent price on that outcome.
A return of three goals from eight matches isn't bad at all by Premier league standards but somehow Javier Hernandez hasn't quite looked himself this season. He's 9/5 if you fancy him to make it four.
Michail Antonio opened his account for the season last week and is 5/1 to be first goalscorer for the second week running and 21/10 to score one anytime. It's the first price that's attractive. If we stick to our conviction that this should be low-scoring, there's more value in that bet. Although of course there could be goals to scupper the 1-0 and we could still collect on the Antonio bet anyway. In addition to often being in good positions in open play, he's also one of their most potent weapons at set-pieces, especially with Caroll absent.
This match might also be a match perfect for someone like Cheikhou Kouyate (5/1) to become a hero. His sole goal last season came in a match similar to this one- a 1-0 win over Swansea- and he's also scored at home to Tottenham this season. That man Knockaert is 4/1.
Ref Watch
Martin Atkinson takes charge. Bar the sending off of Hal Robson-Kanu at Burnley, it's been a quiet season so far for the experienced ref. But with the three acts of gross indiscipline we've seen from players across both sides so far, it might just be worth a very, very small bet on another red at anything bigger than 4.00.
Recommended Bets
1pt Back West Ham to win 1-0 @ 7.40
0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook
Post a Comment