Find Me a 100 Winner: Back this trio of bubble boys for a late surge at Valderrama

With the regular season drawing to a close, Paul Krishnamurty's weekly search for outsiders is focused on players currently outside the top-100 of the Race to Dubai in desperate need of a big finish...

This week's outsider-hunting strategy is straightforward. Look for players for whom the Andalucia Valderrama Masters is their final chance to jump into the top-100 of the Race to Dubai and therefore retain full playing privileges. Then among those outsiders, focus on players whose long game is likely to stand up to the famously demanding test of Valderrama.

Looking back with hindsight, last year's outsider winner Andrew Johnston was very pickable. Beef's forte - hitting fairways and greens for fun - is absolutely essential here. Steve Rawlings runs through the stats of past renewals at this tree-lined venue, including back in the days when it was the money-list finale, and finds the accuracy theme is unarguably true. Anyone not hitting these small greens with regularity will soon fall well behind.

Back Peter Hanson 2u @ 130.00
Place order to lay 15u @ 10.00

Let's start with a class-act with a very solid record here back in the day. Peter Hanson was a rank outsider when contending throughout in fourth on his debut in 2004 and went on to make five further top-25s here. Now languishing in 109th place on the RTD, he needs a special week.

Granted, there hasn't been very much in recent months to suggest it is coming, but there was a glimmer of hope on his penultimate start, shooting 68/67 to close into the top-25 at the Dunhill Links. It isn't so long since Hanson played well - he started the season well in the Gulf - so perhaps this return to a favoured venue will provide the spark just when he needs it.

Back Felipe Aguilar 2u @ 180.00
Place order to lay 10u @ 20.00
Place order to lay 20u @ 5.00

Similar comments apply to this two-time European Tour winner. One can pretty much always rely upon the Chilean to hit fairways and greens - he ranks fourth and fifth respectively among these for driving accuracy and greens in regulation over the past year. The reason he is down at a miserable 128th on the money list, however, is a constant struggle on the greens.

That may not appear to bode well for Valderrama's brutal putting surfaces but I've long felt that, perversely, poor putters can do well here because everyone else is struggling too. Plus, there are encouraging late signals. 15th place at Close House reads well considering that birdie-fest was much less suitable than this, and Aguilar hit three sub-70 rounds for a respectable mid-division result in Italy last week.

Back Joel Stalter 2u @ 250.00
Place order to lay 10u @ 25.00
Place order to lay 15u @ 8.00

Likewise, it is easy to forgive Stalter's poor finishes in the UK, at Close House and in the Dunhill Links, given that he was playing well beforehand and this test will be so different. 130th on the RTD, this young Frenchman appeared to be rising to the challenge with third and 12th place finishes in Holland and Portugal.

That pair of promising results is about all that can be said for his efforts in 2017 but, back at the start of this rookie season, Stalter had been showing plenty of promise. So far as this test is concerned, the fact he has hit a phenomenal average of 82.5% greens in regulation in his last four starts must be a positive.

Other outsiders to consider include Ashley Chesters at 200.00 and Matteo Manasseroat 270.00. In the former's case, his excellent long game stats look perfect for Valderrama and Chesters was only discarded because the last few weeks have been disappointing. Manassero has a couple of recent top-20s in the bag and in theory, should be very well suited to an accuracy test.

At 110th and 113th, that pair are both in trouble regarding the money list. Just on the other side of the cut line in 95th, Richard Bland makes some appeal at 120.00, on the basis of finishing 11th here last year.