Brighton v Crystal Palace: Stalemate likely but VAR could mean bookings

Brighton v Crystal Palace
Monday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport

Not so local bragging rights at stake

It's quite rare in English football to have a derby match between two clubs separated by more than 40 miles, but when Brighton host Crystal Palace on Monday night - a game known as the M23 derby - a famous old rivalry will be renewed.

The rivalry dates back to the 1940s, but arguably was at its most fierce during the mid to late 70s when both clubs climbed the divisions under rival managers Terry Venables (Palace) and Alan Mullery (Brighton) who had previously been teammates at Tottenham. Mullery was club captain at Spurs with Venables his second in command.

The teams last met as recently as November last year in a Premier League game that ended goalless.

That draw was Brighton's third game in a row without a win, and since then Chris Hughton's men have won just one of their next eight league games, slipping to 12th in the table and just three points above the relegation zone.

Palace have been in far better form. Having started the season with seven straight league defeats Roy Hodgson's men have lost just one of their last 11 league games - that being a narrow defeat to Arsenal - meaning they sit just one point behind the Seagulls in the league table. Away from home the Eagles are unbeaten in five, conceding just two goals in the process.

Steve Sidwell remains Brighton's only long-term absentee so Hughton is afforded the luxury of being able to name a full strength team if he so wishes, but that's in stark contrast to Hodgson who has a plethora of injuries.

Defenders Joel Ward, Mamadou Sakho, and Scott Dan, and midfielders Jason Puncheon and Ruben Loftus-Cheek are all unavailable but the Palace boss has pledged to field a strong, competitive side, acknowledging that as well as being a winner-takes-all FA Cup tie, it's a local (ish) derby that both sets of fans will be desperate to win.

Video Assistant Referee (VAR) to make English debut

The final FA Cup tie of the third round will also see the introduction of a Video Assistant Referee (VAR) for an English game for the first time. There has been a lot of things said about VAR in the build-up, most of it inaccurate, so it's important that everyone should know how it works, and give it a fair chance, before dismissing it as a failure.

Despite what some pundits have said, VAR can't be used to decide who a ball last touched before going out for a throw-in, or whether a free-kick was taken six inches further forward than it should have been. In fact VAR can only be used to review Goals (and whether there was a violation during the build-up), Penalty Decisions, straight Red Cards (second yellows can't be reviewed) and Mistaken Identity in the case of a red or yellow card being awarded to the wrong player.

A review can be triggered when one of the above incidents occurs by either the match referee asking for one if he feels he might have made a mistake, or by the VAR notifying the referee of a possible mistake. If the latter occurs the match referee can then a) change his decision on the advice of the VAR, b) conduct an on-field review (OFR) by going to a designated spot on the sideline to review the video, or c) decide that he is confident in his original decision and not conduct an OFR.

Tight market for what should be a close game

The market just favours Brighton - available to back at 2.76 but there isn't much in it with Palace trading at around the 2.90 mark with the Draw the outsider of the three Match Odds options at 3.40.

The fact of the matter is that you wouldn't be surprised at whatever the outcome here, and because it's almost impossible to split the two teams then backing the draw seems more than just a 'sitting on the fence' type of bet.

The Seagulls have home advantage, but they're not in great form. Palace are in better form but have a lot of injuries. But it's a cup tie, and it's a fierce derby match, so form probably goes out of the window anyway.

There's barely nothing to separate the two teams in the league table, they played out a goalless draw at Brighton's home just a few months ago, and between them the two sides have had nine draws (50%) from their last 18 league matches.

Many factors point to high Bookings Points

In a game that is devilishly hard to call, both in terms of the match outcome and number of goals, perhaps the best bet could be to back Over 30 Points at 10/11 in the Sportsbook's Booking Odds.

To collect we'll need either at least four yellow cards (10 points each), or at least one yellow and one red card (25 points), and that doesn't seem to be a lot when you consider that this is a fierce derby match, a FA Cup tie that both teams will be desperate to win at the first time of asking, and a game under the floodlights in front of a sell-out, atmospheric crowd.

But it's the introduction of VAR that could lead to some booking that wouldn't usually occur.

As mentioned already, there seems to be a bit of confusion amongst some pundits as to what can and can't be reviewed and you can bet your bottom dollar that some players will be blissfully unaware as to how it works, and that they'll be badgering referee Andre Marriner to go to a review.

The good news for us is that only the match referee or the VAR himself can orchestrate a review, and that the referee is under strict instructions to book any player who draws an imaginary screen with his fingers in an attempt to persuade him to go to a review.

It should be fun.

Recommended Bets

Back The Draw @ 3.40 in Brighton v Crystal Palace
Back Over 30 Points @ 10/11 in Bookings Odds (Sportsbook)