AFL Preview Round 20: Demons v Suns

Melbourne v Gold Coast
Sun 3:20pm at MCG

The Demons will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 8 and boost their percentage on Sunday afternoon at the ‘G, when they take on the 17th-placed Suns. With a couple of tricky games coming up, the Dees need to make sure they put plenty on the Suns, and it is hard to see how they won’t on the wide expanses of the MCG. The young Suns side won’t have to legs to compete for the whole game, and Hogan and McDonald will be licking their lips when the tiredness kicks in. 

Form

Melbourne (LWWLW) – The last few months have certainly not been as seamless for the Dees as their red-hot run earlier in the season, but you can tell they are definitely building some good momentum ahead of, dare we say it, a stint in September. Gawn and Oliver are easily the best ruck-rover combination in the game right now, and they are complimented by a deep midfield that was very impressive in the way they fought back against the Crows in Adelaide. When they are on song, and streaming forward they are almost impossible to stop. 

Gold Coast (LLLWL) – Beating the Swans for the first time, on the SCG no less, was one of the proudest days for the club in their short history. That was all undone very quickly when the young side failed to deal with the comedown of such a win. They completely imploded against Carlton, who had won just 1 game for the year- and despite kicking the first 3 goals of the game they ended up losing by 35 points. It was hard to find many positives in the game, and it was well summed up by another brain fade by skipper Steven May- who illegally floored Ed Curnow and will miss ANOTHER game. Keep your bloody feet on the ground when you block, champ! 

Stats That Matter– Melbourne have won the past 5 clashes
– Gold Coast are 3-15 on the Over/Under this year
– Tom McDonald kicked 5 goals in their Round 8 meeting
– The Dees are averaging 103 points per game this season (#1 in the AFL)
– Clayton Oliver is averaging 122 Fantasy Points per game over the past month
– The Suns have won just 3 fourth quarters this season (-242 points)
– Jordan Lewis averages 113 Fantasy Points per game against the Suns
– Melbourne have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 matches

Betting Data

2018 Line: Melbourne- 12-6; Gold Coast- 10-8

2018 Over-Under: Melbourne- 10-8; Gold Coast- 3-15

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting Melbourne to bully the Suns and put a mountain of points on, especially given this game is at the MCG. Keep an eye on the weather though, there is a little bit of rain around- so if that is the case Gold Coast 0-50 Points ($2.50) looks a good play. Clayton Oliver should rack up the handballs against a Suns side that just cannot stop contested ball-winners, while the tall timber stocks should have a good day in an under-manned Gold Coast defence that is missing Steven May thanks to another mindless suspension. Dees by PLENTY- they’ll pile it on in the second half when the Suns tire.

How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 61

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Melbourne 121+ Total Points ($1.99)
Value Bet: 4th Quarter Margin- Melbourne 33+ ($4.50)
Player Prop: Clayton Oliver 35+ Disposals ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Tom McDonald