AFL Preview Round 20: Eagles v Dockers

West Coast v Fremantle
Sun 4:40pm at Optus Stadium

Round 20 finishes up on Sunday afternoon with a cracking Western Derby between the Eagles and the Dockers at Optus Stadium. The Eagles still sit in 2nd place despite their form slipping a little of late, and with Collingwood, Port and GWS snapping on their heels, they must win these games, and win them well, to give themselves a crucial home Qualifying Final. They will likely find some some stiff resistance from a young Freo side that will be pumped to upset their big brother in one of the biggest games for the year, and it is safe to say there will be plenty of noise from this patriarchal Perth crowd!

Form

West Coast (LWWWL) – It was their worst loss of the season by a fair way last week when they succumbed down in Hobart by 40 points to a side ranked 8 spots lower than them. Adam Simpson was filthy with the lack of effort his side displayed- because despite missing a few key players they still had plenty of cattle that should have worried the Roos. They were absolutely SMASHED around the ball by North, finishing -26 on contested possessions and -8 in clearances, which meant the Roos were allowed to rack up an extra 14 inside 50’s- which they took full advantage of. Boy did they miss Nic Nat and Shuey. 

Fremantle (LLWLL) – They showed tremendous spirit and enthusiasm in their win over Port at Optus Stadium a few weeks ago, but they haven’t been able to match it with Essendon or Hawthorn over the past night, just looking like they lack a little experience. A 7-11 season, especially considering they have missed Fyfe and Sandilands for large chunks, has been a good result for this young side; and Lyon has got much needed experience into emerging youngsters like Langdon, Brayshaw, Cerra and Banfield. A lot better at home than away, but given their age profile that isn’t too much of a worry.

Stats That Matter– West Coast have won the last 6 Derbys
– Freo are 2-6 on the Over/Under at Optus Stadium
– Lachie Neale had 35 disposals and 138 Fantasy Points in their Round 6 meeting
– The Eagles average 90 points per game
– Shannon Hurn has won the last 2 Glendinning Medals
– West Coast have won 8 of their 10 matches at Optus Stadium
– Andrew Gaff has had 30+ disposals in 5 of his last 6 matches
– Freo are -131 points in 2nd quarters while West Coast are +143

Betting Data

2018 Line: West Coast- 11-7; Fremantle- 9-9

2018 Over-Under: West Coast- 8-10; Fremantle- 6-12

What To Expect

West Coast should win, but Wolfie really likes the look of this huge line in the Western Derby. You know Ross Lyon will find a way to get his boys up for this, and with the Eagles still missing Kennedy, the Dockers can definitely keep it tight. The margin in Round 6 was only 8 points, and while it might be a bit higher than that in this one, the Wolf expects the Dockers to bring a huge amount of pressure and at least challenge the Eagles.

How It’s Shaping UpWest Coast by 18

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Fremantle +36.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Elliot Yeo 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.25)
Player Prop: Lachie Neale 35+ Disposals ($2.40)
First Goalscorer: David Mundy
Glendinning/Allen Medal: Jeremy McGovern ($11.00)