AFL Preview Round 20: Crows v Power

Adelaide v Port Adelaide
Sat 4:35pm at Adelaide Oval

Just when you think Super Saturday can’t get any better, along comes one of the biggest Showdowns in recent memory! It’s the 45th installment of the Showdown, with bitter rivals the Crows and the Power both sitting at 22 wins apiece- and this one will be as big as it gets. The Crows have been very disappointing this season, and they will miss Finals despite contesting the Grand Final last year. That doesn’t not matter one bit when it comes to Showdown time, and you just know Adelaide will lift for this…..they have to! It’s their Home Game, and they will be home the ’19th man’ will be in full voice against a Port side that is electric on its day, and needs this win to keep themselves in the frame for a Home Qualifying Final. Strap yourselves in punters, this could be the game of the season!

Form

Adelaide (WLWWL) – Trying to get a read on Adelaide’s form this season has been close to impossible, especially given all the ins and outs every week. They are finally getting some key personnel back now- but they aren’t playing with much rhythm. Against Melbourne (and, coincidentally, against Port in Round 8) Don Pyke lamented his side’s costly lapses when in a position of control- and from the outside it seems like the Crows aren’t playing with the hunger needed to be a genuine Premiership threat with excuses flying around everywhere. Wayne Milera and Hugh Greenwood have continued to improve and are now an important part of the Crows at either end of the ground. Milera’s ball use is second-to-none and Greenwood’s tackling and attack on the ball is showing up his more experienced teammates.

Port Adelaide (WWLLW) – After slipping up in winnable games against Freo and GWS, the Power got the win they desperately needed despite the horrendous conditions in Ballarat last Sunday. Fortunately for Port, the conditions perfectly suited the contested ball bulls in the midfield and Charlie Dixon had the game Power fans had been waiting all season for. You could it was a case of ‘I lead, you follow,’ for big Charlie, and the Power certainly went along for the ride. When he is up and about, and Ryder is handing the ball to his clearance kings- the Power are very hard to beat. Problem is, that isn’t happening consistently enough!

Stats That Matter– Adelaide have won 5 of the last 6 Showdowns
– Port have won 7 of their 9 games at Adelaide Oval this season
– Robbie Gray kicked 6 goals in their Round 8 clash
– 8 of the Power’s last 10 games have gone Unders
– Eddie Betts is averaging 3.8 goals per game in his last 4 against Port
– The Crows are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 matches
– Tom Rockliff averages 130 Fantasy Points per game against Adelaide
– Adelaide are averaging just 73 points per game since Round 10

Betting Data

2018 Line: Adelaide- 6-12; Port Adelaide- 7-11

2018 Over-Under: Adelaide- 7-11; Port Adelaide- 5-13

What To Expect

Boy oh boy, is Wolfie excited for this one! Adelaide had the wood over Port in recent times, but that was broken in Round 8 and you certainly can’t imagine any blowouts here. Both sides have shown a propensity for fluctuating their efforts across quarters, and like last Showdown, Wolfie is very keen on the Wire to Wire market. Either team under 15 appeals as well, but the Wire to Wire market suits the statistical patterns of both these sides perfectly. Power in a close one.

How It’s Shaping UpPort Adelaide by 4

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Wire to Wire- Any Other Result ($1.97)
Value Bet: Both Teams Score 80+ Points ($4.80)
Player Prop: Hugh Greenwood 8+ Tackles ($2.50)
First Goalscorer: Robbie Gray
Showdown Medal: Patrick Ryder ($26.00)