US Open Men's Singles Day Seven Tips: Fatigued Coric vulnerable against Thompson

 US Open Men's Singles Day Seven Tips: Fatigued Coric vulnerable against Thompson

It's the start of the fourth round of the men's singles at the US Open, and with four matches on today's schedule, our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to preview the action...

Zverev a heavy favourite over Davidovich Fokina

We had disappointment on Saturday in the men's with Marton Fucsovics easily beaten by Frances Tiafoe in straight sets, while there was a surprise for Roberto Bautista-Agut with Vasek Pospisil fighting back from 2-1 down to win in five sets.

Friday's winners are back in action this afternoon, with men's matches starting a little later, at 1730 UK time this evening. We are 'treated' with two very heavy favourites to open the schedule, with Alexander Zverev at 1.11 to get the better of the improving Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who after losing in qualies here last year will already be looking forward to a nice boost in his ranking following this tournament after three underdog victories.

Zverev has dropped a set in all of his three matches so far and such a prospect wouldn't be that unlikely today. He looks a little short at market prices against a competent, and improving opponent, but it would still be a major shock if the German was defeated this evening.

Djokovic dominance again shown by market pricing

Following this, Novak Djokovic is 1.04 to get the better of Pablo Carreno-Busta, and the world number one also looks slightly short-priced as an overwhelming favourite. This will be Djokovic's fourth consecutive match here as around a 1.05 favourite or shorter, which illustrates his dominance even against top 50 opposition, as he faces here, and also faced against Jan-Lennard Struff and Kyle Edmund in his previous two victories.

Coric now having played back-to-back five-setters

On Friday, I mentioned that I thought Stefanos Tsitsipas was short-priced to beat Borna Coric, and the Croatian duly defeated Tsitsipas in five sets, in an epic match which lasted in excess of four and a half hours.

Coric has now played two back-to-back five-setters, both lasting over four hours, and his opponent tonight, Jordan Thompson, has a considerable advantage in accruing less court time, and therefore accumulated fatigue.

The market looks to be overvaluing Coric after that statement victory over a top-five seed, but I'm quite happy to take Thompson as today's recommendation as a 2.58 underdog, considering both of the two players have similar hard court data over the last 12-18 months.

Model agrees with Goffin being favourite

Finally, David Goffin is a marginal 1.81 favourite to get the better of Denis Shapovalov today, and he was also a similar price when he beat the Canadian in Tokyo a year ago in two tiebreaks. I make this price not particularly out of line - I have him at 1.78 to get through to the quarter-finals.