Manchester City v Tottenham: Slick Spurs can make hay against fragile defence

"Spurs have been on the goal trail of late. Against the combined forces (perhaps not the correct word) of John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi, it's hard not to see them having some joy"

Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 17:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Manchester City

There were moments during his side's 4-0 surrender at Everton last weekend when Pep Guardiola could barely bear to watch. The TV cameras caught the Manchester City manager staring straight ahead into space, apparently completely befuddled by what was occurring on the field.

City's line-up told its own story, with a deeply underwhelming back four ahead of the shaky Claudio Bravo, plus Pablo Zabaleta drafted in as an emergency midfielder. Given all the money the club have spent on new players over the last few years, serious questions need to be asked of those in charge of recruitment. This is a top-heavy squad that looks ill-equipped to carry out Guardiola's demanding game plan.

Goals have been an issue in the league over the last three matches, with Sergio Aguero yet to reach top speed since returning from injury and Kevin De Bruyne enduring a quiet patch. But help could be at hand: Brazilian sensation Gabriel Jesus has been cleared to play and could feature on Saturday afternoon.

Tottenham

While their hosts this weekend are up against it, Tottenham travel to the Etihad with wind in their sails after a fine sequence of results. Since a narrow defeat to Manchester United in November, Spurs have won every one of their seven matches in all competitions, overtaking Liverpool, Arsenal and City in the Premier League in the process (ahead of Saturday's games).

They turned in their most impressive display of the season so far last time out, thrashing a solid West Brom side at White Hart Lane. With Harry Kane, Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen all in fine fettle, Mauricio Pochettino's side are beginning to look like the most likely challengers to Chelsea at the summit.

There was a cloud to the silver lining a week ago, however: Jan Vertonghen was forced off with an ankle problem and is expected to be absent for six weeks or so. Kevin Wimmer or Ben Davies could come into the side if Pochettino elects to stick with a back three, but he may be tempted to bolster his midfield with Moussa Sissoko or Harry Winks.

Match Odds

Given City's form, it is perhaps a touch surprising to see them as short as 2.20 to win this one, even factoring in home advantage. They have won their last three at the Etihad, beating Arsenal just before Christmas, but Chelsea, Middlesbrough, Southampton and Everton have all taken points from them in Manchester this season. Of those, the table would suggest only Chelsea are better than Spurs.

Recent matches between the sides have gone Tottenham's way: they've won the last three league meetings. They are clearly the form side and will be hopeful of heaping more misery on struggling opponents. Our only doubt is over how Spurs cope with Vertonghen's absence, which could unsettle the backline against quality attackers.

The Tottenham win holds appeal at 3.70, but a more sensible play is to back the away side on the Asian handicap. By backing Tottenham 0 & +0.5 at 2.10, you earn a small profit if they draw and a bigger one if they win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Spurs have been on the goal trail of late, with five of their six consecutive league wins since have gone over the 2.5-goal line. Against the combined forces (perhaps not the correct word) of John Stones and Nicolas Otamendi, they ought to have some joy.

City will need an improvement in attack if they are to get a result, then, but it's worth noting that they've scored in every home game to date. With that in mind, the overs holds a little more appeal at 1.86. A better bet, though, might be Both Teams to Score at 1.71. That would have paid off in 14 of City's 21 Premier League matches.

Tottenham Total Goals

In terms of goal betting, this is the market that really stands out. City have conceded eight goals in five meetings with the current top six, including two to Tottenham at White Hart Lane and three against Chelsea at the Etihad - the latter game provided a nice winner for this column.

Their only clean sheets this term have come against Bournemouth, West Brom, Watford and Hull, so it's almost unthinkable that Spurs won't break through. We'll back them to get at least two goals against a fragile defence at 9/5 on the Sportsbook.

To Score

Eriksen has scored in both of his two Premier League visits to the Etihad and is worthy of consideration at 3/1. The romantics may also want to look at Jesus, who is 7/4 to snaffle a debut goal. Really, though, it is hard to look past Kane. He has six goals in his last four games and is available at 5/4.

Recommended Bets

Back Tottenham to score two or more at 9/5
Back Tottenham 0 & +0.5 at 2.10