Bundesliga Betting: Mainz to feel force of Bayern backlash

Bayern Munich v Mainz
Saturday September 16, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

No club in Germany sparks debate, gossip and wild overreaction like Bayern Munich. Saturday's limp 2-0 defeat at Hoffenheim has been painted as a portent of doom, and while there are certainly issues to solve at Sabener Strasse, I still believe Bayern will win the Bundesliga title yet again this season.

The defeat in Sinsheim has to be put into context. Hoffenheim haven't lost at home in the league since May 2016, and they seem to have Carlo Ancelotti's Bayern worked out better than most teams. That's largely down to the genius of coach Julian Nagelsmann, who many observers feel will one day be coach at Bayern. The 30-year-old has linked himself with the job, and that's no surprise, given that he is a Bavarian and a huge fan of the club.

It's certainly true that the current Bayern coach is finding life tough at the Allianz Arena, so much so that he has bemoaned the criticism that has come his way. Ancelotti's avuncular, hands-off approach has worked well through most of his career, but Bayern's powerbrokers aren't convinced it's the right fit for Bayern. The contrast with Pep Guardiola's intense and demanding style couldn't be more stark.

Ancelotti's failure to whip his troops into shape has led to a few of them going rogue. Star striker Robert Lewandowski has complained about a lack of summer investment in the squad (a bizarre claim, quite frankly), Thomas Muller feels that Ancelotti doesn't appreciate his qualities (even though he started most Bundesliga games last season), and Franck Ribery threw a hissy fit when he was substituted during the midweek win over Anderlecht in the Champions League.

So, will all this moaning and groaning hamper Bayern's chances against Mainz this weekend? I would answer with a resounding no. Although Mainz have avoided defeat on their last two visits to Munich, I'm not sure about them at all this season. I feel that replacing coach Martin Schmidt with Sandro Schwarz will prove to be a mistake, and the continual sale of top players is catching up with the Zerofivers. They are very light in attack, and although they had an impressive victory against Bayer Leverkusen on Matchday Three, this is a huge leap in the quality of opposition.

Bayern have won seven of their last 11 Bundesliga home games by three goals or more, and having dismissed Anderlecht by three clear goals on Tuesday, I suspect similar punishment is coming Mainz's way.

Recommended Bet
Back Bayern Munich -2.5 on the Asian Handicap at 2.18

RB Leipzig v Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday September 16, 16:30
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

RB Leipzig's Champions League bow in midweek saw them draw 1-1 with French champions Monaco, and it will hearten Ralph Hasenhuttl's young upstarts that they weren't found wanting in the rarefied air of European football's top competition. The point continued a good run of form that has also seen Die Roten Bullen beat Freiburg and Hamburg.

Regular readers will know what a huge fan of Leipzig and Germany striker Timo Werner I am, and it's great to see the 21-year-old flourishing on a consistent basis. He has worked hard to improve his game, and it's no surprise to see the speedster linked with clubs like Real Madrid.

Werner has scored 14 goals in his last 14 games for club and country, and he netted in both Bundesliga games against Borussia Monchengladbach last season. Dieter Hecking's Foals have looked a little more shaky than usual defensively - they conceded twice in a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, and were undone at home by Eintracht Frankfurt last week.

At odds-against, I think backing Werner to score is a sensible play.

Recommended Bet
Back Timo Werner to score at 2.06

Borussia Dortmund v FC Koln
Sunday September 17, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2 and Betfair Live Video

Both of these sides are licking their wounds after 3-1 defeats in European competition to sides from north London. Borussia Dortmund were unable to contain Tottenham Hotspur and Harry Kane at Wembley, although they were unlucky to see what could've been a precious equaliser from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyangwrongly ruled out for offside. As for Koln, their first European game in 25 yearsended in defeat at Arsenal. There have been many column inches dedicated already to the invasion of the Emirates by Billy Goats fans, so like Koln coach Peter Stoger, I'll plead the fifth and keep quiet.

What the defeat to Arsenal did underline was Koln's continued defensive decline.They have now leaked three goals in each of their last three matches, and they've conceded 15 times in their last eight outings. Koln's progress has been almost exclusively built in the past two seasons on a solid defence and the goals of Anthony Modeste. Will Modeste now playing in China, it appears both of those pillars have crumbled.

Dortmund came up against a very good side on form at Wembley, and after comfortably seeing off Hertha Berlin and Wolfsburg this season, I think they can get a similar result against a Koln side that needs to quickly rediscover the defensive basics that yielded a fifth-place finish last term. Given that Koln have drawn blanks at Borussia Monchengladbach and Augsburg, and BVB haven't yet conceded a Bundesliga goal, I'll back the hosts to win to nil.

Recommended Bet
Back Borussia Dortmund to win to nil at 2.00 (Sportsbook)