Watford v Manchester City: Visitors should grind down patched-up Hornets backline

Watford v Manchester City

Saturday, 15:00

Hornets flying despite defensive absences

These are early days in the Marco Silva era, but the signs so far have been hugely positive. Watford have made an unbeaten start in the Premier League, keeping three clean sheets in four games, and would go top of the table - even if just for 24 hours - with a win over Manchester City on Saturday. It would be just their second stint at the summit of the English football pyramid in 136 years.

Silva has had to work around personnel issues at the back in the last few weeks and this weekend will be no different: Younes Kaboul picked up a knock in the win against Southampton and will need replacing. With Miguel Britos still suspended and both Craig Cathcart and Sebastian Prödl injured, one of Adrian Mariappa and Molla Wagué will have to partner Christian Kabasele.

Thankfully for the Hornets, there is better news elsewhere: Kiko Femenía should be fit to play, while Roberto Pereyra could also make a return to the squad. "He is one more solution for us and an important one," Silva said on Thursday.

City firing on all cylinders

An away trip in the Champions League is never ideal preparation for a Saturday game, but Manchester City are unlikely to be overly tired after their evening stroll against Feyenoord on Tuesday. Pep Guardiola's side didn't need to get out of second gear after taking an early lead, with Sergio Agüero and David Silva both taken off long before the end of the match.

City have now racked up nine goals in their last two matches, which is testament to the attacking riches at Guardiola's disposal. But perhaps even more heartening is the fact they have managed two clean sheets in a row, using different systems - a back three against Liverpool and a line of four at De Kuip. Even the absence of Vincent Kompany has not derailed them.

The Belgian is likely to miss out again this weekend, so the side should remain largely untouched. Guardiola's only real dilemma is whether to switch shape, with Danilo the likely beneficiary if he decides to add another defender to the mix. Bernardo Silva would be the man most likely to make way.

Form book favours the visitors

City have an impressive record against Watford: they've taken 14 points from the six Premier League meetings between the sides, and last lost to the Hornets way back in 1989. There's a good chance they'll triumph on Saturday, although a price of 1.36 is too skinny for our tastes.

Were Watford at full strength, it would be tempting side with them on the Asian handicap given their unbeaten start. But with the centre of defence severely weakened, it is hard not to see City having some joy eventually, even if Silva will have them drilled to keep things tight for as long as possible.

The most tempting bet here is Draw/City in the Half Time/Full Time market. This selection would have yielded a profit in both of City's away games so far (2-0 at Brighton, 2-1 at Bournemouth).

Goal fest not guaranteed

With City's firepower, it's no great surprise that the market is predicting goals here: over 2.5 is just 1.56. But Silva is a smart operator, capable of testing the big sides, as he proved with Hull last year: of the big six, only Tottenham beat the Tigers by more than two goals (on the last day of the season), with games against Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal all low-scoring. There may, therefore, be a touch of value in the unders at 2.74.

Agüero the main man for City

The best pick in the goalscorer market looks to be Agüero, who is more likely to stay on for 90 minutes than Gabriel Jesus, having only played an hour in midweek. The Argentine also has a superb record against Watford, with six goals in four games in all competitions - 1.74 is the price.

Recommended Bet

Back Draw/Man City HT/FT at 4.50