I put Aston Villa up as a confident selection on Saturday only for them to produce a dire performance at home to a Brentford side still without a win all season, and who'd sold their best player in the transfer window.
Steve Bruce's men were awful, and the reality is that but for a tremendous goalkeeping display by Sam Johnstone Villa could easily have lost by two or three. The Bees registered 18 shots at goal, five on target. Villa managed just the solitary shot on target all game.
There's no doubt about it now, Bruce is under pressure, and who knows how his team will react when pre-season title favourites Middlesbrough visit Villa Park on Tuesday night. The home side may well raise their game significantly - in fact I'm expecting them to - but on the evidence of what we've seen so far this Aston Villa team aren't in great form and are lacking confidence.
As expected Boro got their first away win of the campaign with an impressive 3-0 victory at Bolton on Saturday, and the first two goals illustrate perfectly why I always fancy Garry Monk's men to do well on the road at this level. They can pinch the ball and counter attack in lightning fast fashion - watch Adama Traore's contribution in those two goals below - which is a potent weapon to have.
With home advantage I can just about understand Villa being favourites to win this match, but given that my worry for them before the season commenced was their ability to score regularly, and now that they're facing arguably the best defence in the Championship, then I'd just favour the away win if forced to make a selection.
But it's a Middlesbrough Clean Sheet that I'm making my best bet ahead of this game. Monk's men have already kept five in seven league and cup games this term, and with Villa misfiring in large parts so far - none more so than at home to Brentford - then being able to back Boro to record another clean sheet at 2/1 makes plenty of appeal.
Recommended Bets
Back Middlesbrough Clean Sheet @ 2/1 (Sportsbook)
QPR 2.40 v Millwall 3.30; The Draw 3.50
It's been a more than satisfactory start to the season for QPR with the club currently sitting eighth in the table after accumulating 10 points from their opening six games.
But it's at Loftus Road where 90% of those points have been accrued; Ian Holloway's men have won three from three league games in front of their home fans, beating decent outfits Reading, Hull, and Ipswich so far. The goals are being shared around too, with strikers Jamie Mackie, Conor Washington, and Matt Smith having two each to their names, while Idrissa Sylla has one despite never starting a league game so far this term.
Away from home the Hoops haven't been quite as good, and perhaps it's too early to make a definitive call but a lot of times you'll get a team that performs much better on home soil than they do away from home, or vice versa.
Millwall are the visitors to Loftus Road on Tuesday night so you can guarantee there'll be a terrific atmosphere given the derby aspect, but Neil Harris' men are yet to score a single goal away from home in the Championship, while they also lost on their travels in the EFL Cup.
The Lions don't look a bad side, and their home form is decent, but this looks on paper to be a match-up between a very good home side against a poor away side, and that means QPR have to be the selection.
Recommended Bets
Back QPR to Win @ 2.40 (best bet)
Sunderland 2.04 v Nottm Forest 4.00; The Draw 3.70
Simon Grayson is another boss under pressure after his Sunderland side lost their third consecutive game at home to Sheffield United at the weekend.
The Black Cats have been dreadful at the Stadium of Light for some time now and alarmingly haven't won in front of their own fans for 13 games, which is the second longest winless run in the club's history. A home draw with Derby was creditable, and a defeat to Leeds now looks as though it was at the hands of a good team, but Saturday's home defeat to the Blades was a shocker and the boos were loud and clear from the Sunderland faithful.
Grayson knows his team have to improve on home soil, not least because if he wants to stay in a job results need to turn around quickly, so I'm expecting quite an attacking mentality on Tuesday night knowing that Forest can be quite leaky.
Mark Warbuton's men have won three and lost three in the Championship so far but away from home their games have been wide open affairs. They won 4-3 at Brentford, lost 2-1 at Barnsley, and on Saturday lost 3-1 at Sheffield Wednesday. In the EFL Cup they won 3-2 at Newcastle (2-2 after 90 minutes) meaning their four league and cup away games this term have witnessed a total of 19 goals for an average of 4.75 per game.
It seems madness then - and a gift - that we can back Over 2.5 Goals in this fixture at odds against, and that's where I'll be placing my money.
Recommended Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02
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