Aus Open 2018: Day 4
Federer barely broke a sweat in his opening match and The Wolf says his match will resemble more of an exhibition that a contest.
Day 4 – Men’s Feature Match Previews
Hyeon Chung v Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev’s early season run continued and he delivered in a big way against Kokkinakis in the opening round. The Wolf said the market was wrong, having the Aussie as favourite, and they have somehow installed the Russian as a significant outsider yet again. He is a perfect 8-0 this season and will take an edge in form and match fitness into this one. The pair did face off at the Next Gen Finals at the end of last season with Chung winning in 5 sets. The first to 4 format is much different to what we have seen on the tour and forces a much faster math tempo. Medvedev loves the grind and this will suit him down to a tee. He will look to steer clear of the Chung forehand and his match against Kokkinakis will prove to be the ideal preparation. He was able to direct a substantial amount of ball to the Kokkinakis backhand and will do the same here. The hot conditions will also help him get more out of his serve. Have to take Medvedev with the start.
Best Bet: Medvedev +3.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Medvedev WIN ($2.60)
Medvedev’s early season run continued and he delivered in a big way against Kokkinakis in the opening round. The Wolf said the market was wrong, having the Aussie as favourite, and they have somehow installed the Russian as a significant outsider yet again. He is a perfect 8-0 this season and will take an edge in form and match fitness into this one. The pair did face off at the Next Gen Finals at the end of last season with Chung winning in 5 sets. The first to 4 format is much different to what we have seen on the tour and forces a much faster math tempo. Medvedev loves the grind and this will suit him down to a tee. He will look to steer clear of the Chung forehand and his match against Kokkinakis will prove to be the ideal preparation. He was able to direct a substantial amount of ball to the Kokkinakis backhand and will do the same here. The hot conditions will also help him get more out of his serve. Have to take Medvedev with the start.
Best Bet: Medvedev +3.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Medvedev WIN ($2.60)
Tennys Sandgren v Stan Wawrinka
Patient and effective are the most suitable words that can be used to describe Wawrinka’s first match back on tour for some time. We saw him chip back almost every return and hit slice backhands deep into the court. Then, when given the opportunity he unloaded with what is the most dangerous backhand in world tennis. Sandgrens is what The Wolf refers to as a ‘plodder’. He is not a great mover and will look to attack with his first forehand. He almost always goes inside out with it (into a right handed players backhand) but that means he will be going right into the Wawrinka wheelhouse. Stan will only improve on his first match and The Wolf can see him taking complete control from pillar to post.
Best Bet: Wawrinka -5.5 ($1.83)
Value Bet: Sets Wawrinka 3-0 ($2.75)
Patient and effective are the most suitable words that can be used to describe Wawrinka’s first match back on tour for some time. We saw him chip back almost every return and hit slice backhands deep into the court. Then, when given the opportunity he unloaded with what is the most dangerous backhand in world tennis. Sandgrens is what The Wolf refers to as a ‘plodder’. He is not a great mover and will look to attack with his first forehand. He almost always goes inside out with it (into a right handed players backhand) but that means he will be going right into the Wawrinka wheelhouse. Stan will only improve on his first match and The Wolf can see him taking complete control from pillar to post.
Best Bet: Wawrinka -5.5 ($1.83)
Value Bet: Sets Wawrinka 3-0 ($2.75)
Novak Djokovic v Gael MonfilsAnyone who saw Novak’s opening match will find it hard to believe that we was out of tennis for the last 6 months. Physically he looked in perfect order and his movement was right on point. His game play will improve with every match and it is the one area which Monfils should look to exploit. Djokovic holds a commanding 14-1 record in the H2H but if the Frenchman is to beat him this shapes as his best chance yet. Monfils was outstanding in his title winning run in Doha to start the season but 13 double faults in his opening match here has to be concerning. Both players have undergone changes on serve in the offseason. Djokovic has abbreviated his swing while Monfils has changed his stance. Monfils will put up far more resistance than Young did. If he can take it upon himself to play aggressive he is capable of causing a huge upset.
Best Bet: Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Sets Total – 5 Sets ($4.80)
Best Bet: Over 35.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Sets Total – 5 Sets ($4.80)
Peter Gojowczyk v Alexander Zverev
Gojowczyk has been The Wolfpack’s pal in 2018 and he could put himself on the mantle piece. The Wolf is a massive advocate of Alexander Zverev and labelled him a future slam winner and number 1 some time ago. That being said, he is adamant that his time has not arrived just yet – not at the majors anyway. He is yet to make it beyond the 4th round and there were stages in his opening round match against Fabbiano that he looked nervous. He was missing far too many regulation forehands and is yet to prove himself on the big stage and against a top quality opponent over 5 sets. Gojowczyk will keep the errors to a minimum and has shown that he can consistently get into his opponents service games. The Wolf says we will be saying goodbye to at least one of the big boys on Day 4 and Zverev may just be the one who is shown the door.
Best Bet: Over 33.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Gojowczyk WIN ($5.25)
Gojowczyk has been The Wolfpack’s pal in 2018 and he could put himself on the mantle piece. The Wolf is a massive advocate of Alexander Zverev and labelled him a future slam winner and number 1 some time ago. That being said, he is adamant that his time has not arrived just yet – not at the majors anyway. He is yet to make it beyond the 4th round and there were stages in his opening round match against Fabbiano that he looked nervous. He was missing far too many regulation forehands and is yet to prove himself on the big stage and against a top quality opponent over 5 sets. Gojowczyk will keep the errors to a minimum and has shown that he can consistently get into his opponents service games. The Wolf says we will be saying goodbye to at least one of the big boys on Day 4 and Zverev may just be the one who is shown the door.
Best Bet: Over 33.5 games ($1.83)
Value Bet: Gojowczyk WIN ($5.25)
Jan Lennard Struff v Roger Federer
Backing the Unders in Federer matches will be a very rewarding play in the early rounds. The total went Under in his opening match despite the reigning Australian Open champion converting just 4 of 13 break point opportunities. He will get just as many opportunities if not more against Struff. The German will look to play big but that will be undoing and will allow Federer to pick him apart. We will see him try to come in behind some big forehands but The Wolf says he doesn’t have the consistency in his game to challenge Roger. You need to hit 5, 6 and even 7 really good shots to win points against the top players and The Wolf cannot see Struff doing so. Frustrations will grow and his game will fall apart. A double break margin in one of the sets will ensure that the Unders salutes.
Best Bet: Under 29.5 games ($1.73)
Value Bet: 2nd Set Scorecast Federer 6-4 ($4.50)
Backing the Unders in Federer matches will be a very rewarding play in the early rounds. The total went Under in his opening match despite the reigning Australian Open champion converting just 4 of 13 break point opportunities. He will get just as many opportunities if not more against Struff. The German will look to play big but that will be undoing and will allow Federer to pick him apart. We will see him try to come in behind some big forehands but The Wolf says he doesn’t have the consistency in his game to challenge Roger. You need to hit 5, 6 and even 7 really good shots to win points against the top players and The Wolf cannot see Struff doing so. Frustrations will grow and his game will fall apart. A double break margin in one of the sets will ensure that the Unders salutes.
Best Bet: Under 29.5 games ($1.73)
Value Bet: 2nd Set Scorecast Federer 6-4 ($4.50)
Day 4 – All Men’s Tips
| Match (Time AEDT) | Tips |
| (11:00) Querrey v Fucsovics | Best Bet: Over 38.5 games ($1.91) Value Bet: 1st Set Score After 6 Games 3-3 ($1.75) |
| (11:00) Smyczek v Ramos-Vinolas | Best Bet: Ramos-Vinolas WIN ($1.52) Value Bet: Sets Ramos-Vinolas 3-0 ($3.40) |
| (11:00) Kicker v Lacko | Best Bet: 1st Set Winner- Kicker ($3.50) Value Bet: Kicker WIN ($5.25) |
| (11:00) Thiem v Kudla | Best Bet: Over 33.5 games ($1.83) Value Bet: To Win A Set – Kudla ($2.10) |
| (12:30) Berdych v Garcia-Lopez | Best Bet: Berdych -6.5 ($1.80) Value Bet: Sets Berdych 3-0 ($2.00) |
| (13:00) Vesely v Mannarino | Best Bet: Over 36.5 games ($1.80) Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($3.90) |
| (14:00) Khachanov v Del Potro | Best Bet: Khachanov +6.5 ($1.83) Value Bet: 1st Set Correct Score 7-6 ($3.10) |
| (14:15) Chung v Medvedev | Best Bet: Medvedev +3.5 ($1.91) Value Bet: Medvedev WIN ($2.60) |
| (14:15) Djokovic v Monfils | Best Bet: Over 35.5 games ($1.83) Value Bet: Sets Total – 5 Sets ($4.80) |
| (14:30) Donskoy v Fognini | Best Bet: Donskoy +5.5 ($1.91) Value Bet: Donskoy WIN ($3.60) |
| (14:30) Goffin v Benneteau | Best Bet: Benneteau +7.5 ($1.91) Value Bet: Sets Total – 5 Sets ($7.00) |
| (16:15) Gasquet v Sonego | Best Bet: Sets Gasquet 3-0 ($1.53) Value Bet: 2nd Set Scorecast Gasquet 6-1 ($7.50) |
| (16:15) Verdasco v Marterer | Best Bet: Over 36.5 games ($1.80) Value Bet: Marterer WIN ($4.00) |
| (17:00) Gojowczyk v A.Zverev | Best Bet: Over 33.5 games ($1.83) Value Bet: Gojowczyk WIN ($5.25) |
| (20:30) Sandgren v Wawrinka | Best Bet: Wawrinka -5.5 ($1.83) Value Bet: Sets Wawrinka 3-0 ($2.75) |
| (20:30) Struff v Federer | Best Bet: Under 29.5 games ($1.73) Value Bet: 2nd Set Scorecast Federer 6-4 ($4.50) |
Day 4 – Women’s Feature Match Previews
Garbine Muguruza v Su-Wei Hsieh
Wolfy likes everything he saw in Muguruza’s opening match. Firstly and most importantly there were no signs of injury. Outside of that, the part which The Wolf found most impressive was her ability to harness her game and stay in complete control. She held back on the power meter and looked very good at the net. We have seen her game grow with Martinez in her corner and if she can stay injury free she will be making a very deep run. Hsieh went 8-6 in the 3rd after being bageled in the opening set and will no doubt crumble when Mururuza gets the upper hand.
Best Bet: Under 18.5 games ($2.00)
Wolfy likes everything he saw in Muguruza’s opening match. Firstly and most importantly there were no signs of injury. Outside of that, the part which The Wolf found most impressive was her ability to harness her game and stay in complete control. She held back on the power meter and looked very good at the net. We have seen her game grow with Martinez in her corner and if she can stay injury free she will be making a very deep run. Hsieh went 8-6 in the 3rd after being bageled in the opening set and will no doubt crumble when Mururuza gets the upper hand.
Best Bet: Under 18.5 games ($2.00)
Lesia Tsurenko v Agnieszka Radwanska
Radwanska has been one of the most consistent players on the WTA Tour for some time but her lack of power has prevented her from ever winning a Grand Slam. We opening round match against Pliskova epitomises all that she is about. Her opponent was the aggressor and when she made her shots she was able to get the better of Radwanska. It makes backing against her at the line a very profitable play in the long run. Tsurenko just has to play 20 minutes of her best to take a set. Overs.
Best Bet: Over 20.5 games ($1.73)
Radwanska has been one of the most consistent players on the WTA Tour for some time but her lack of power has prevented her from ever winning a Grand Slam. We opening round match against Pliskova epitomises all that she is about. Her opponent was the aggressor and when she made her shots she was able to get the better of Radwanska. It makes backing against her at the line a very profitable play in the long run. Tsurenko just has to play 20 minutes of her best to take a set. Overs.
Best Bet: Over 20.5 games ($1.73)
Ashlegih Barty v Camila Giorgi
Consistency was the name of the game for Barty in her opening round match as Sabalenka tried to take control of the baseline exchanges. That will not be the case against Giorgi. The Italian doesn’t have the power to take the game away from Barty and we will see the Aussie play more of her own game this time around. Giorgi has been in great form – making the final in Sydney but she will have to overcome a poor record against Barty. Ashleigh posted a 6-3 6-0 win over Giorgi last season and it is hard to looked past such a result. With the crowd behind her Barty will march into the 3rd round.
Best Bet: Barty WIN ($1.62)
Consistency was the name of the game for Barty in her opening round match as Sabalenka tried to take control of the baseline exchanges. That will not be the case against Giorgi. The Italian doesn’t have the power to take the game away from Barty and we will see the Aussie play more of her own game this time around. Giorgi has been in great form – making the final in Sydney but she will have to overcome a poor record against Barty. Ashleigh posted a 6-3 6-0 win over Giorgi last season and it is hard to looked past such a result. With the crowd behind her Barty will march into the 3rd round.
Best Bet: Barty WIN ($1.62)
Day 4 – All Women’s Tips
| Match | Tips |
| Kerber v Vekic | Over 18.5 games ($1.73) |
| Safarova v Cirstea | Sets Safarova 2-1 ($3.80) |
| Halep v Bouchard | Over 18.5 games ($1.83) |
| Sharapova v Sevatsova | Sharapova -3.5 ($1.80) |
| Muguruza v Hsieh | Under 18.5 games ($2.00) |
| Tsurenko v Radwanska | Over 20.5 games ($1.73) |
| Barty v Giorgi | Barty WIN ($1.62) |
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