Our man looks back at an extremely eventful final day's golf action where there was an emotional victory in South African and a long drawn out win at the Sony. Read his customary reflections of the week here...
We had to wait more than a month for the European Tour to resume after it's festive break but 2018 has kicked off in fabulous fashion with Chris Paisley holding off pre-tournament favourite, Branden Grace, to secure a heart-warming win at the BMW SA Open.
Matched at a high of 500.00 before the off but generally a 400.00 chance, Paisley was winning his first European Tour title and he did it brilliantly. Grace came out of the gates with a birdie-eagle start and he was soon trading at long odds-on - hitting a low of 1.31 - but Paisley, with his wife, Kerri, caddying for him for the very first time, kept his calm and he was soon in command.
The tournament turned dramatically on the par three sixth hole when Grace made double-bogey, leaving Paisley two clear, and the 31-year-old Englishman took full advantage of Grace's mistake. He went on to birdie the seventh to stretch the lead to three and the result was never in doubt after that. Paisley went on to lead by five through 12 holes but after a late rally by Grace, he eventually took the title by three.
Over at the Sony Open. James Hahn shot a final round eight-under-par 62 to post 17-under-par and the only man to match him was my pre-event pick, Patton Kizzire.
Third round leader, Tom Hoge, who was a 630.00 chance before the off, played far better than I'd expected under the gun and he was matched at a low of 1.45 before he double-bogeyed the 16th hole. He narrowly missed birdie putts inside 10 feet at both 17 and 18 and we were left with two to fight it out in extra time.
The playoff went on and on and on with both players missing chances to take the title. Kizzire, who had been matched at a low of 1.75 in regulation play before he bogeyed the 13th and parred his way in, was matched at a low of 1.23 at the fourth extra hole and Hahn, a pre-tournament 240.00 chance who was matched at 910.00 in regulation play, was matched at 1.20 when he had six feet for the victory at the fifth extra hole, but he failed to convert that and he failed to make par from the same distance at the sixth playoff hole(the par three 17th) and I was finally able to go to bed!
It was the longest playoff in Sony Open history and the longest on the PGA Tour since John Huh beat Robert Allenby at the eighth extra hole at the 2012 OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Had Hahn won, his seven shot 54-hole deficit overcome would have been the biggest in Sony Open history.

My Bets
I made a very small profit at the BMW SA Open thanks to a lay back of Grace on the first hole yesterday at 1.55 and the Sony result was very nice.
Having backed him before the off at 85.00I layed Kizzire a few times in regulation and I backed Hahn at an average of 7.00 so the playoff was a relaxed affair. Although I do consider myself somewhat fortunate that Hoge didn't make it to the playoff.
As highlighted in the In-Play Blog, I didn't fancy his chances, so I didn't get him onside until the very end when I backed him very modestly at 12.00 as he played the 72nd hole.

What Have We Leaned This Week?
The profile of BMW SA Open winners has changed dramatically of late. Ten of the 11 winners between 2002 and 2011 (there were two editions in 2005) were South Africans but five of the last six have been Europeans. Three of the last four have been Englishmen and outsiders now have a great record.
South Africans seem to find it really difficult to get across the line in their national title at this venue for some reason. The likes of Jbe Kruger, Hennie Otto and George Coetzee have all come very close without winning and Branden Grace and Charl Schwartzel have both traded at odds-on here without winning in two different editions.
Following Kizzire's victory, the OHL Classic at Mayakoba is by some distance the very best form guide to the Sony Open. There have been just 11 editions of the OHL Classic and we've now seen three winners there double up in Hawaii. In addition to Kizzire, Johnson Wagner and Mark Wilson have won both tournaments and the 2013 winner (2014 season) of the OHL, Harris English, traded at 1.67 to double up here just months after winning in Mexico. There are many other players that have fared well at the two tournaments and you'd be hard-pressed to find two courses that correlate better.
They're a couple of hints to bear in mind in 12 months' time but in the much more immediate future, it might make sense to revisit the markets on the exchange on a Wednesday. I've noticed some incredible late drifts of late and it may be worth holding some pre-tournament stake money back. Last week's fancy at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, Brian Harman, drifted form a price in the mid-30s right out to 60.00 before the off and this week's winner did much the same thing - touching a high of 130.00.
We've got some great golf to look forward to this week and I'll be back later or tomorrow with my Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and CareerBuilder Challenge previews.

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