Derby v Bristol City: Rams to take advantage of distracted Robins

Friday night sees promotion-chasing rivals Derby and Bristol City lock horns at Pride Park. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter...

Derby v Bristol City
Friday 19th January, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Cameron Jerome lines up for Derby debut

Second-placed Derby reduced the gap to the runaway Championship leaders Wolves to ten points after beating struggling Birmingham 3-0 at St Andrews last weekend. Johnny Russell, Matej Vydra and Andreas Weimann all grabbed goals as Gary Rowett returned to haunt his former club.

The Rams made a sluggish start to proceedings with goalkeeper Scott Carson, who Rowett has said is worthy of an England recall, pulling out a couple of impressive stops. But County rode the early pressure and soon exerted their authority on the encounter to seal a sixth win in eight outings.

New signing Cameron Jerome is available to make his Derby debut but the striker might need to wait for his opportunity from the bench. Elsewhere, midfielder Bradley Johnsonremains the hosts sole injury concern.

Will Robins have one eye on Man City clash?

Bristol City boss Lee Johnson believes his promotion-chasing team could be becoming victims of their own cup success. The Robins were beaten 1-0 at Ashton Gate by Norwich last weekend, extending their losing streak to five matches.

City saw far more of the ball throughout the game but struggled to break down the Canaries defence. Josh Brownhill hit the post before Norwich scored the decisive goal against the run of play with 10 minutes to play and Johnson suggested his side struggled with the physical exertion so soon after their League Cup date with Manchester City.

Bristol City could be forgiven for having one eye on Tuesday night's return tussle with the Premier League leaders but the visitors will be unable to make sweeping changes. The Robins are in the midst of an injury crisis with club captain Bailey Wright and strikers Matt Taylor and Gustav Engvall joining the already lengthily list of absentees and doubts for Friday.

Match Odds - Rams out to extend home record against Robins

Bristol City's 3.85 4-1 win over Derby in the reverse encounter was their biggest league win over the Rams since winning 3-0 in February 1985 but the Robins might not be afforded the same chance when they travel to Pride Park.

Derby 2.12 have won 11 of their last 14 home league matches against the Robins (D1 L2), scoring at least three goals in each of their last three meetings here. The home side have claimed eight victories in 13 home outings and recorded clean sheets in seven of their most recent 11 Championship matches.

With Bristol City very short of offensive options, potentially distracted by Tuesday's semi-final second leg, and having failed to score in three of their last four, their might be mileage in backing a Derby win 'to nil' at 5/2. All eight of Derby's triumphs at Pride Park having arrived alongside a clean sheet.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals - Rowett will have his men well drilled

Considering Derby have conceded just three goals in their last 11 games and only three of their 13 Pride Park matches have delivered in the Over 2.5 Goals 2.10 market, it's difficult to imagine a high-scoring encounter on the cards.

Rowett's men are formidable defensively and outstandingly organised so should relish the battle against a Bristol City side that's received numerous plaudits for the manner of their displays under Johnson.

Nevertheless, the Robins have returned Over 2.5 Goals profit in 11 of 13 trips to top-six clubs - six of their most recent 11 featured Over 3.5 Goals - so I'm happy to swerve the standard goals lines.

Anytime Goalscorer - Vydra can net again

Matej Vydra is the Championship's top goalscorer, averaging a goal every 104 minutes. The Czech hitman has notched eight goals in his last 11 appearances at Pride Park (opening the scoring in six of seven games when he's found the net).

Vydra's 16 goals in 22 starts, together with the fact that he's on penalty duty for the Rams, means I'm happy to back the home striker to net again at 6/4.