Mike Holden on the EFL: Tigers to roar against timid Black Cats

It's hard to believe Sunderland versus Hull was a Premier League fixture last season but the Tigers have more reason for optimism going forward and they can take the spoils at the Stadium of Light this weekend...

Sunderland v Hull
Saturday 15:00

The honeymoon period is well and truly over for Chris Coleman at Sunderland. The former Wales boss picked up a handful of eye-catching results in December but has started 2018 with three straight defeats and the manner of their second-half collapse in last weekend's 4-0 drubbing at Cardiff carried all the hallmarks of a team destined for the drop.

Stadium of Light regulars will remain hopeful that Coleman can pull a couple of rabbits out of the hat in the January window to drag the Black Cats off the bottom towards safety but you'd expect any decent business to happen at the end of the month because no decent player in their right mind would move to Wearside until they've exhausted all their options.

Events this week serve only to reinforce the suspicion that Sunderland are doomed, a club stumbling from shambles into another. First they announced the departure of Jack Rodwell on a free transfer, only for Rodwell to baulk at the idea of walking away from a £70,000-per-week contract with 18 months left.

Then Burnley announced that striker Jon Walters would undergo knee surgery less than a week after Sunderland had identified him as their primary target on loan, having already let want-away striker James Vaughan depart for Wigan. The club is a basket case and there's probably not a lot Coleman - like Simon Grayson before him - can do about it.

Hull are hardly a model of how to deal with relegation from the Premier League but they are positively vibrant by comparison. Nigel Adkins has breathed new life into a fragile dressing room that lost its whole identity following the departure of several long-servants last summer and a roller-coaster season still has every chance of finishing on a high.

Leonid Slutsky was the right man at the wrong time and brought some refreshing ideas before his lack of knowledge and experience of the English game eventually led to demise. Now Adkins brings most of what the Russian was lacking and the Tigers have been taking baby steps in recent weeks, putting the necessary defensive foundations in place.

A drab 0-0 against Reading last weekend stretched Hull's current winless sequence to six matches but they've dominated the 'expected goals' in six of their last seven outings, a remarkable feat considering Brentford, Cardiff, Leeds, Derby and Fulham have been among the opposition. Over the full 27 matches to date, they boast a respectable 48% shot ratio.

Sunderland, by contrast, have an abysmal shot ratio of 25% over the past eight matches, having registered an attacking xG of less than 0.3 in half of those outings. And their share of chances created over the whole season isn't much better at 35%. Throw in the fact they've won only one out of their last 23 home matches and this ought to be fairly routine for the visitors.

Recommended bet:
1pt Hull to beat Sunderland at 2.56

Plymouth v Wigan
League One, Saturday 15:00

Only Blackburn and Scunthorpe have picked up more points than Plymouth since the October international break, with the market perpetually against them throughout a run of eight wins and six draws from 16 matches. So don't be put off by the price about them toppling leaders Wigan, there's still some mileage in the Pilgrims burning the fingers of some big hitters once again.

Performance data obviously has plenty to do with Argyle failing to convince everybody that they belong in a comfortable mid-table berth but coming up short on the xG quotas has been a common theme since the day Derek Adams walked into the club and we shouldn't rule out the idea that there's something about his approach that exposes a blind spot in many models.

Wigan have been the best team in the division by a country mile up to this point and backed up that status with a deserved 3-0 win over Premier League Bournemouth in the FA Cup on Wednesday night. But their standards in front of goal had dipped in recent weeks, which is intriguing now that Blackburn have finally got their act together and appear to be mounting a genuine charge.

Paul Cook deserves immense credit for what he's done with a talented group of players at the DW Stadium but you do worry about his ability to keep things on an even keel whenever pressure begins to mount, so perhaps we shouldn't be surprised that Latics suddenly rediscovered their best form as underdogs in a knockout scenario.

Prior to that, Wigan had fired blanks in three successive home matches and the quick turnaround will do them no favours against a manager with vast experience of Cook and his religious 4-2-3-1 system from his Portsmouth days. Adams has come up against the Liverpudlian six times in the past two years and boasts a marginally superior record with two wins and three draws.

It's worth noting that Pompey started as favourites in nearly every one of those encounters but the more it mattered, the more Adams came out on top. The departure of Toumani Diagouraga is bound to hurt Argyle eventually but right now they have enough confidence in the bank to keep going and cap their mid-season resurgence with a prize scalp at a big price.

Recommended bet:
1pt Plymouth to beat Wigan at 6.80