Azerbaijan v Wales: Dragons to keep their Euro 2020 hopes alive

The task is clear for Ryan Giggs' Welsh team as they travel to Azerbaijan knowing that they can't afford not to win. Paul Robinson has the best bets...

Azerbaijan v Wales
Saturday November 16, 17:00

Group E's whipping boys having a tough time

Azerbaijan are well adrift at the bottom of Group E as they have taken just one point from a possible 18 since qualification started.

That sole point came in a 1-1 draw in their last match on home soil, as they caused a bit of an upset by holding Croatia to a draw. They then followed that with a 3-2 friendly win in Bahrain, but it was back to losing ways last time out - a 1-0 defeat in Hungary.

It is still relatively early on in Nikola Jurčević reign as coach, but his record hasn't been great, and they haven't made any progress from their decent Nations League performance.

Euro 2016 feels like a lifetime ago for Wales

The Welsh travel to Baku knowing that they likely have to win their final two games to have any chance of qualifying for next summer's tournament.

Just two wins from six Group E qualifiers leaves them trailing Croatia, Hungary and Slovakia, but they do have a game in hand over the first two named, and if the Slovaks are beaten in Croatia on Saturday, two more wins will see them finish second.

Aaron Ramsay is available for selection again, which will be a huge boost to Ryan Giggs. Gareth Bale has been out injured for Real Madrid, but he's been training with his Welsh teammates, and will almost certainly start this game.

Slow start expected in Baku

The visitors are the 1.51 favourites which is basically 1/2 in old money. It's not normally a price that you want to be playing at for a team who are away from home and hardly prolific winners, but it's difficult to imagine any other result.

Ryan Giggs has rarely had the chance to field both Aaron Ramsay and Gareth Bale at the same time, but he will in Baku, and it's three points or bust for the Dragons.

Wales haven't actually recorded a victory on the road since a 1-0 success in Dublin during the Nations League. Since then it's been three defeats and one draw, but they haven't been conceding many goals at least.

The hosts have actually lost just two of their last nine at home, but both of those came in Euro 2020 qualifying, and they have conceded nine goals in their last three.

A shock win for Azerbaijan is available to back at 8.60, but I am not tempted by that in the slightest, and I can't even get excited about the draw at 4.30.

What I do like the look of though, at a bit of a better price than just the straight Wales win, is Draw/Wales in the Half Time/Full Time market.

That outcome is trading at around the 4.00 mark on the Betfair Exchange, and with Ryan Giggs' team being a fairly low-scoring side, it could take them a while to get then breakthrough.

Possible trading opportunity in the goal markets

When it comes to goals, the Betfair Layers are favouring Under 2.5, by quite some margin. It is around 1.70 at time of writing, with the Over at 2.30.

As alluded to in the preview so far, I doubt that this will be a high-scoring affair. Yes, Azerbaijan have been beaten 3-1 and 5-1 here in qualifying already, but Wales have scored six and conceded six in half a dozen matches, and even at their peak during the last Euros, they were never a prolific side.

Ironically, Wales' last game to have three goals or more was the reverse fixture back in September, but even then it only crept over with a final score of 2-1.

This is a no bet market for me as the prices are about right. My only possible recommendation when it comes to goals is to back Under 0.5 at 9.40, with a view to trade. For more information on backing and laying on the Exchange, check out this link.