Man Utd v Brighton
Sunday, 14:00
Sunday, 14:00
United finding confidence
After steadying the ship with a 1-1 draw against leaders Liverpool, Manchester United have won four of their last five matches in all competitions and confidence is clearly up again.
And yet that run includes a 1-0 defeat at Bournemouth last Saturday and means they go into the weekend two points and two places below Sunday's visitors Brighton.
Three of United's next four Premier League matches are at Old Trafford (Aston Villa and Spurs come next) so this is the chance to build some momentum.
A 3-0 win over Partizan on Thursday night may have started that process and the trio of goals were scored by Mason Greenwood, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford so their frontmen are starting to find a groove.
And if you like historical trends, United are unbeaten in their last 41 PL home games in November, a sequence which stretches back to 1996.
Seagulls flying high
After surviving the drop with 36 points last season, Brighton have already banked 15 in 11 games so far to sit eighth in the table.
That equates to a superb start under new boss Graham Potter and it's been fuelled by a run of three straight home wins against Tottenham, Everton and Norwich - although there's an argument that they ran into those three sides at a good time.
Since winning 3-0 at still winless Watford on opening day, Brighton's away form has been less convincing.
They've (predictably) lost 4-0 at Man City, drawn 0-0 at Newcastle, been defeated 2-0 at Chelsea and suffered a 2-1 loss at Aston Villa.
That suggests the Amex is where they'll decide their fate although, given their comfortable position in the table, Potter will see this as a fairly pressure-free opportunity to make a lasting memory.
Win market can be argued both ways
On the pure grounds of the visitors being higher in the table, there's a not unreasonable argument for saying that Brighton are worth a bet at 6.60.
However, it somehow doesn't seem big enough or am I being swayed by stats such as United winning nine and drawing two of their last 11 home games with Brighton or the Seagulls picking up just one point from the last 39 available away to the six ever-present Premier League sides (P13 W0 D1 L12).
Man Utd are 1.70 to bag three points - an unthinkable price in previous years - while The Draw is just 3.75.
I have a feeling that this may be quite a nice game for the hosts. It's not Brighton's style to sit back and soak up pressure; they look to play their football and go forward.
That could play into United's hands although I'd rather look elsewhere than the basic win market.
Man Utd (-1) is a possible option at 3.05 and that's landed in two of their last three wins - 3-1 v Norwich and 3-0 v Partizan.
Overs makes more appeal
Scoring goals has been United's big problem this season but that could be starting to change.
Despite a blank at Bournemouth, they've scored eight in their last four and their front men (more of which later) are in the goals.
Brighton games are more open than they were under Chris Hughton and four of their six road trips in all comps this season have featured three or more goals.
The prices show that Over 2.5 is the underdog at 2.02 and that makes more appeal than Unders at 1.94.
Brighton could contribute although, on very latest form, Man Utd now look as if they might be capable of scoring the three required goals on their own.
As for Both teams to Score, it's a pick 'em at 1.97.
Rashford red hot
The bets that appeal most, however, lie in the goalscorer markets.
It was only a month or so ago that Marcus Rashford was being dismissed as simply not good enough to be the main striker at such an elite club.
However, since smashing in a goal for England in mid-October, he's netted five in his last six games for Man Utd.
That includes goals in his last two home games against Liverpool and Partizan and a stunning free-kick winner at Chelsea.
Rashford is on roll and worth backing accordingly.
The basic To Score price of 2.68 is more than acceptable on recent numbers and I'll also play him To Score 2 Goals or more at 9.00. He's netted a brace twice in 16 games for United this season.
Anthony Martial missed two months of the campaign so has plenty of running in his legs. He's banked three in six since returning and five in nine overall this season.
Take Martial To Score at 2.42.
Both seem to be sharing penalty duties at the moment and United win plenty so that adds further appeal.
Opta stat
Brighton manager Graham Potter only ended on the winning side in one of his eight Premier League games as a player, doing so with Southampton in a 6-3 win over Man Utd in October 1996 - Red Devils boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer appeared as a substitute for Man Utd that day.
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