We're heading to Brazil, because Kev's found a relegation battle where the hosts are too short for the win.
Guarani to boost survival hopes
Vila Nova v Guarani Wednesday 13 November, 22:15
As it turned out, it wasn't quite as painful in Paraguay as we'd hoped. A 2-1 win for River Plate Asuncion at Sportivo Luqueno ruined our Under 2.5 Goals bet, and so we have to dust ourselves down and try again, just like Aaliyah once told us to.
We'll head to Brazil for some second-tier action. Vila Nova are deep in relegation danger as they face Guarani, who have given themselves some breathing space after a relatively decent run of form.
Vila Nova haven't won a home game in the league since June, and since then they have drawn eight and lost five at the Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Overall, they have collected just five points from their last nine matches, and their last win in the second tier was back in late September, when they won 1-0 at Londrina. They have scored more than once in just one of their last ten outings, and they are second from bottom in the standings.
Guarani are 14th in the division, five points clear of the dropzone. They have lost just one of their last four matches, and if you stretch back further they have won eight of their last 16 games in the league. They aren't far enough clear of trouble to be able to relax, and they have only lost three of their last seven away games in Serie B.
Vila Nova seem too short to me at 2.24, so I'll back Guarani Draw No Bet here at 2.94. If you want to be more conservative, you could always back Draw and Away in the Double Chance market at 1.77.