Wolves v Aston Villa: Visitors to take something from their trip to Molineux

There is a West Midlands derby at Molineux on Sunday and Paul Robinson is expecting a frustrating afternoon for Wolves fans...

Wolves v Aston Villa
Sunday November 10, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports

Wolves improving but victories remain infrequent

Nuno Espírito Santo's side are on the brink of qualifying for the knockout stages of the Europa League, but their attention returns to domestic action this weekend, and they will be keen transfer some of that success to the Premier League.

It hasn't been a terrible start for Wolves, they have only been beaten twice, but they have only won twice too, and seven draws from their other seven fixtures leaves them in 12th place.

They are currently in the midst of a six match unbeaten run in the league, with the latest three of them ending all square, but given the way the table is at present, two or three back to back victories will have them in the mix for the European places.

As for the team news, Willy Boly is a long term absentee, but Ryan Bennett is fit again, so he could come back into the side. Jonny, Romain Saiss and Diogo Jota didn't feature in midweek, so I would expect them to start on Sunday.

Villans need to prove their mental toughness

Aston Villa suffered late heartbreak last weekend as they conceded two late goals against Liverpool, to lose 2-1 in a game that they looked certain to take the three points from.

Dean Smith's men will need to show mental toughness to get over that, but they appear to be a bunch who won't let it affect them, and they had been getting some decent results prior to that.

Since another unlucky defeat at Arsenal back on September 22nd, only Manchester City had beaten Villa, as they had started turning their good performances into wins.

One of the catalysts for that was the manager's decision to move Jack Grealish further forward, and after missing the Liverpool game through injury, Smith confirmed that he was only 50/50 to feature against Wolves.

Odds-on backers to get fingers burnt

The Black Country hosts are odds-on to get the win on Sunday, as they are trading at around the 1.93 mark. The draw is next best at 3.75, with the Villans the outsiders at 4.50.

Given a win percentage of just 18% in the league this year, and the fact that they were in action on Thursday, I can't consider backing Wolves at that price.

They have only beaten Watford at Molineux this term, and other visitors included Burnley and Southampton. Keeping clean sheets has become a real issue for them - one at home and two away - and when you have only scored more than once in a match on four occasions, you just aren't going to record too many victories.

Aston Villa have already beaten Wolves once this year - a 2-1 success in the Carabao Cup at Villa Park, just over a week ago. They both fielded weakened XI's for that fixture, so while the form can't be taken literally, it will still give the visitors a slight psychological edge.

Unfortunately it's hard to be buoyant about Villa's away form this season, as they have been beaten on four of their five road trips. It has to be noted though that three of those were at Spurs, Arsenal and Man City, and arguably one of their best performances came in a 5-1 thumping of Norwich at Carrow Road.

It is hard to see Wolves losing this match, but they are too short at 1.93 to back for win purposes, so my bet is to lay them on the Betfair Exchange at the lay price of 1.94.

For those unaware, a lay bet is where you back against that particular outcome. In this example, if we lay Wolves to win £10, our loss if they actually do win is £9.40, but should they draw or lose, we make a £10 profit.

Will there be goals at Molineux?

When it comes to the average number of goals per match, it is Aston Villa who have the higher number out of the two.

Dean Smith's team are seeing their league games average 3.09 goals each time, with eight of their 11 ending with the ball in the net on three occasions or more.

Wolves have a lower average, but at 2.55 it is still a relatively high number. Interestingly though, nine of their 11 have seen Under 2.5 backers collect, with eight of their outings having exactly two goals in them. Their 2.55 average is skewed by their 2-5 defeat against Chelsea.

Since that loss, the hosts have played six times in the league and all six have gone Under 2.5. It is actually odds-against for that run to continue this weekend, as the Under is the outsider at 2.14.

Of course the waters are muddied by the fact that four of Villa's five away fixtures have gone Over 2.5 since their promotion back to the top flight, but I can't get excited by Overs at 1.82.

This is a no bet market for me, as I don't have a particularly strong opinion either way, and I'd rather concentrate on my lay of Wolves in the match-odds.

Trading Places

Opta tells us that Aston Villa have dropped 11 points from winning positions in the Premier League this
season - more than any other side. So although I am already recommending a lay of Wolves, I think there is a back to lay opportunity in the same market.

Despite their poor away record, Villa actually led in two of their four defeats, and in all three of Wolves' home draws, they had to come from behind to earn the point.

Therefore backing a Villa win a 4.50, with a view to laying off and locking in a profit should they lead, could be a decent strategy for this game.