Wanderers hard to oppose for trip to Prenton
Tranmere Rovers v Wycombe Wanderers
Sunday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
Sunday, 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football
This will be the second outing on Sky for Tranmere this season, but it will be a totally different game to their smash-and-grab 0-1 victory against Coventry last month.
The Sky Blues were 1.75 to win that, so Rovers are certainly capable of causing an upset in this division. The market however is nowhere as lop-sided for Sunday's clash, as the hosts can be backed at 3.05 and Wycombe at 2.32. And that's a fair enough price for the Chairboys.
It's been a common theme this season that Wanderers have been underrated in the market. After all, Gareth Ainsworth's side are second with 33 points and haven't really suffered a dip in form. A win this weekend will take them top, and there's an argument to say they should be a bit nearer to 2.10.
Indeed, Opta stats back up a Wycombe this weekend as they have won two of their last three at Prenton Park. That stats aren't particularly encouraging for Tranmere, who are inconsistent. They have won only two of their last nine home matches with one clean sheet - and that was against Bolton in a 5-0 success.
Wycombe excel at spoiling games and are good at playing to their strengths. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the recent 2-2 FA Cup clash between the pair last week as this will be a different sort of match. The visitors tend to be very tight defensively on their travels and have hit the Under 2.5 mark six times from seven road games.
With that in mind, the Under 2.5 bet at around 1.96 looks a sensible play. And whilst the Double Chance with Draw and Away is appealing as an outcome, the price is too short, so we'll stick with an away win.
Imps still seeking elusive away win under Appleton
Gillingham v Lincoln City
The League One fixture list is a bit threadbare with the international call-ups, and for those dipping into the division for the first time, this is a classic for the third tier - with Gillingham being susceptible favourites against a team that hasn't won away under their new manager.
It's a pick 'em game at 2.58 for the hosts against 2.92 for the visitors.
With those prices in mind, the Draw could be the most appealing bet. Opta stats highlight the fact that Gillingham have won only one of their last eight matches against newly-promoted opposition - with six ending in a stalemate. That's food for thought with the 3.40 on offer for the draw.
After all, it's 16th and against 17th and both are on 18 points.
Whilst Lincoln have failed to win any of their previous eight matches, they haven't been playing too badly under Michael Appleton. He has stressed the need for clean sheets, and you can see that in how they play as they try and contain. It was a gameplan that seemed to work reasonably well at Peterborough, but they were just too good in the end with a couple of good finishes.
The fact the visitors tend to stay in games it least gives us a chance with the draw. And if you are looking for an Under 2.5 bet, backers of that outcome have collected with all five of Lincoln's previous five matches. However, it's a little short for me at 1.75, but I can understand the price.
Hill can gain win over rookie Martin
Bolton Wanderers v MK Dons
MK Dons are winless in their last nine matches, and with a new manager on board in the shape of Russell Martin - this could be a tricky game for the visitors. I am not overly excited about the prospect at backing the Dons at 2.82.
Martin is inexperienced, and he has taken over a team that is short on confidence and wins.
His opposite number Keith Hill is just that - opposite. He's the wily old fox of the division and has somehow managed to improve Bolton - a team that has hardly appeared in the column all season.
Hill's team were dumped out of the FA Cup last weekend against Plymouth, but as Hill stressed afterwards: "I love a cup run, but there are bigger things to concentrate on at the football club". This really is a game that Bolton should be looking to win, and one they are capable of winning.
Since September, the Trotters have earned home draws against Oxford (0-0) and Sunderland (1-1). And if they can back up their last success on their own patch against Fleetwood - they look a pretty good bet at around 2.76. But there's a big 'if' as sides in this division often struggle to back up with results and performances.
Bolton's veteran forward Daryl Murphy is in-form, and has two in two and is a key man for Saturday. MK Dons are likely to sit deep and try and hit on the counter, and I would rather back the hosts at a similar sort of price.
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