Football Bet of the Day: Terrific Turkey to qualify in style

We're switching our attention to international action tonight, and Kev's treating us to a crucial EURO 2020 qualifier in Turkey.

Visitors to be frozen out

Turkey v Iceland
Thursday 14 November, 17:00
Live on Sky Sports

It's becoming quite a frustrating week. We were four minutes away from a 2.94 winner in Brazil last night, but Vila Nova snatched an equaliser against Guarani, and we merely saw our stake returned.

Club football hasn't been kind to us so far, so we'll head to the EURO 2020 qualifiers. Turkey are up against Iceland, with a place at next year's finals up for grabs.

Turkey have done incredibly well in the qualifiers so far. They took four points of world champions France, and their only defeat was in Iceland. This means that a draw would be enough to see them qualify for next year's big dance, but a win would keep alive their hopes of winning the group ahead of Didier Deschamps' team.

Turkey's progress has been underpinned by their excellent home form. They have won their last six home games including friendlies, and they have only conceded one goal in the process. In these qualifiers, they have beaten France (2-0), Andorra (1-0) and Albania (1-0.)

Iceland are once again punching above their weight as they look to maintain what's been an unprecedented golden era for the country's football. A 4-2 defeat in Albania last month looks to be what has cost them qualification from this group, and they are very much drinking in the last-chance thermal pool (they don't have many saloons in Iceland.) If you look at their away form, they have leaked four goals apiece in defeats in France and Albania, and their only win away from home in he last 11 attempts was in Andorra.

I'm torn between two bets here. There is plenty of evidence to suggest backing Turkey to win at 1.73, given their impressive consistency on home soil, and you could even back them -1.0 on the Asian Handicap at [2.31], which means you win if they in by two goals or more, and a one-goal victory would see your stake returned.

Alternatively, you could go for Over 2.5 Goals at 2.14. Iceland have conceded plenty of goals on their travels, and they have to push for victory here, and will leave gaps at the back.

I'll back Turkey to book their place at EURO 2020 in style.