The Editors' Premier League Betting Battle 2019-20: Round 17
Dan extended his lead at the top last weekend with an 11/5 winner while Jake hauled himself up to third place. Here's where the editors' tenners are headed this for Round 17...
Rashford to continue hot streak
Dan Thomas Back Marcus Rashford to score v Everton @2.18 Sunday, 14:00 Live on Sky Sports
It's all looking more rosy in the Manchester United garden after an impressive run of wins - more of which from Joe below - and a lot of this is down to the form of Marcus Rashford.
The England forward has already equalled his best ever Premier League goal tally in a single season (10) in just 16 games and has scored seven goals in eight league appearances at Old Trafford.
Getting an odds-against price on him continuing that run against an Everton side - who were far more impressive last week under Duncan Ferguson but have struggled on the road all year - jumps out at me and is where my tenner is going.
Dan Thomas 2019-20 P/L: +£86.20
Another United win looks value
Joe Dyer Back Man Utd win/over 2.5 goals double @2.70 v Everton Sunday, 14:00 Live on Sky Sports
For a team that has just beaten Manchester City and Tottenham, and scored four in the Europa League in midweek, I'm surprised that Manchester United are as big 1.85 to defeat Everton this weekend.
Yes, the Toffees secured a stirring win last weekend under the temporary leadership of Duncan Ferguson, but should United - playing at home don't forget - be that long in the match odds? Not for me!
The hosts have nearly all key men fit barring long-term absentee Paul Pogba and have every reason to build on their current good form with fourth-placed Chelsea just five points off them in the table.
A simple back of the home side is a pretty appealing bet on its own but (stupidly perhaps) I am going to include over 2.5 goals to boost the price to a chunky 2.70.
Joe Dyer's 2019-20 P/L: +£29.90
City to thump Arsenal
Jake Osgathorpe Back Manchester City -1 v Arsenal @ 6/5 Sunday, 16:30 Live on Sky Sports
I'm not getting carried away with Arsenal getting a win against West Ham on Monday, as I really wasn't impressed with the Gunners against one of the worst teams in the league.
Freddie Ljungberg has yet to show me that he can turn this sinking ship around, and he has had the fixtures to do that, playing Norwich, Brighton and West Ham, with all three performances poor, and games in which they continue to look vulnerable defensively, which doesn't bode well here.
Manchester City were beaten by Manchester United last weekend, but while the eye test would tell you they were poor defensively, according to expected goals they were very unlucky to lose, racking up 2.57 xGF and allowing just 0.67 non-pen xGA.
In fact, City have 'won the xG battle' in all 16 of their Premier League games, so are extremely unfortunate to be so far off the pace in the title race, and if they continue playing the way they are with the same process, wins will start to rack up for Pep's side.
Last week, when Arsenal played Brighton, I said that Brighton's midfield is much better than Arsenal's - a key battle in the game - and that statement provides even more cause for concern for Arsenal fans as they go up against Manchester City's midfield, which I expect to dominate.
I actually think City just to win here at 1.49 is a good bet for short odds players, but I can see this being a thumping, and I really like the look of City -1 at 2.14, heaping more misery on the Gunners.
Jake Osgathorpe 2019-20 P/L: +£14.40
Fast start, goals and a win for Foxes
Mike Norman Back Leicester HT/FT & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.16 v Norwich (Same Game Multi) Saturday, 15:00
With title-chasing Leicester long odds-on to beat relegation favourites Norwich it will be a huge surprise if the Foxes don't notch up their ninth consecutive Premier League win on Saturday afternoon. The problem we have then is to try and boost their win odds.
One way of doing that is to back Brendan Rodgers' men to lead at the interval before collecting another three points. True, the Foxes have tended to win games late on of late but they did score two first half goals against Villa last week and in Norwich, they're playing a team that concedes first half goals for fun.
The Canaries have lost 11 league games this term, and they've conceded a rather worrying 17 first half goal in those defeats. So with this being their toughest away assignment since losing 4-1 to Liverpool on the opening day of the season then it's not too difficult to envisage Leicester leading at half time and full time.
The odds on that eventuality are around 1.80, so we'll boost it even further by backing Over 2.5 Goals in a Same Game Multi on the Sportsbook. The Foxes should have few problems scoring three goals themselves while Norwich are quite capable of chipping in with a goal given their attacking intent.
So Leicester to win the half-time market, win at full-time, and the game to have at least three goals is my bet this week, available to back at 2.16.
Mike Norman 2019-20 P/L: -£4.00
Wolves to extend their unbeaten run
Jasmine Baba Back Wolves/Draw Double Chance and Over 2.5 Goals in Wolves v Tottenham @ 3.63 (around 13/5)
It may be recency bias that Tottenham are favourites in this game after their 5-0 against Burnley, however against Wolves, I think it's an overreaction. Luckily for us that has provided value with a safer option to oppose Jose Mourinho's men.
Spurs still don't look like the team of their prime-Pochettino years. Their defence is leaky, conceding two goals in three out of their last four league games, and I don't think their thumping of Burnley is an indicator of them fixing their defensive problems, just their opponents on the day were pretty terrible. And if there's any team that can take advantage of those weaknesses, it's a Wolves team that are unbeaten in 11 league games (W5-D6).
Since the start of last season, Wolves have taken more points from the 2018-19 top six than any other side who finished outside of these places last term (21 - W5 D6 L5). Tottenham, meanwhule have lost 10 of their last 14 Premier League away games, so it makes sense to play the Wolves/Draw double chance and I'll bump the value up by backing over 2.5 goals too with the Same Game Multi option at around 13/5.