Leeds v Brighton: First-half pragmatism should pay on Saturday night

Leeds v Brighton
Saturday 18th March, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports 1

Leeds

Leeds are only four points adrift of the magical 70-point mark that tends to signify a top-six finish in the Championship but Garry Monk's men were left frustrated by QPR at Elland Road last week. The Whites failed to land an attempt on-target and were second-best in a 0-0 draw of few clear-cut chances.

The hosts have claimed 20 league victories already this season - more than their final tally of wins in each of the last six league seasons but supporters are growing concerned that their pragmatic approach is finally being worked out by opposition sides.

Leeds' two triumphs in their last four LS11 outings came against naturally-attacking Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday whilst both Cardiff and QPR enjoyed great success sitting back and playing on the counter-attack here.

There's been plenty of calls for Leeds to abandon the system of using two defensive midfielders but pragmatism is the soul of his team and Monk will not change tack now. Here he has right-back Luke Ayling and midfielder Kalvin Phillips suspended with Charlie Taylor and Ronaldo Vieira to cover.

Brighton

Last Friday night Derby felt the full force of a Brighton side keen to make-up for back-to-back losses at the start of March with the Seagulls cruising to a cushy 3-0 victory at The Amex. With Newcastle dropping points elsewhere, the victory pushed Chris Hughton's troops level on points with the leaders.

Nicknamed the 'Terror Trio', Anthony Knockaert, Sam Baldock and Glenn Murray all got on the scoresheet again and have collectively grabbed a hugely impressive 42 of Brighton's league goals this season - that's 67% of their overall goal-tally.

The only negative for Hughton was another defensive injury with highly-experienced Bruno limping off leaving 19 year-old Chelsea loanee Fikayo Tomori as the only obvious cover. With Shane Duffy, Connor Goldson, Seb Pocognoli and Gaetan Bong all sidelined, Brighton are short of cover at the back.

However, Uwe Hunemeier has impressed since his return to full fitness over the past two fixtures and Seagulls supporters will hope to see dynamic midfielder Dale Stephens in the side again - the ex-Charlton man has only been on the losing side for Albion times in 13 months.

Match Odds

Brighton have beaten Leeds in each of the past six 

renewals, keeping their sheets clean in five of those contests. With the Seasiders winning exactly half of their 18 away fixtures and suffering only six league defeats all season it's perhaps no surprise to see the guests chalked up as 2.44 favourites.

Leeds 3.25 have lost all four fixtures against sides currently above them in the Championship standings and the hosts have been out-shot 33-83 in their past five fixtures, landing only 10 efforts on-target in that sample.

However, the Whites have suffered a sole reverse in 10 Elland Road outings on Championship duty (W8-D1-L1) and with Brighton returning W3-D5-L3 when travelling to clubs in 16th and above, the draw looks the best play here at 3.35.

But instead of backing the full-time stalemate, I'll investing faith in the half-time draw at 2.06. It's a selection that's proven profitable in 37/74 (50%) of the two clubs' collective league matches, as well as 22/37 (59%) when viewing the pairs home and away records.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Neither Leeds nor Brighton have proven particularly impressive in the Over 2.5 Goals market this term; only 33 (45%) of the duos cumulative encounters have broken the two-goal line and that figure reduces further when looking at their respective home and away returns.

Leeds have seen Under 2.5 Goals 1.70 bank in 11 of their last 13 Elland Road encounters with a huge 14/19 (74%) paying-out for Unders backers across the campaign here. A healthy 10/18 (56%) of Brighton's away days have followed suit.

Those looking to punt the 2.28 available on Over 2.5 Goals will be encouraged by Brighton's concerning recent defensive performances on the road. Bar their clean sheet at Rotherham, the visitors have shipped three goals at Huddersfield, Nottingham Forest and Brentford in the past six weeks.

First Goalscorer

It's hard to pen a piece involving Leeds without mentioning Chris Wood. The New Zealand international has scored 25 goals in 39 appearances this season and has notched in a league-high 19 different Championship matches.

Wood's scoring at a rate of one every 122 minutes and has opened the scoring in 14 of his 32 league starts; that's a 44% hit-rate. At Elland Road, the 25 year-old has scored first in exactly half of his 18 league starts.

A major threat from set-pieces, Wood is also Leeds' nominated penalty-taker and looks too big to ignore again at quotes of 4/1.

Recommended Bets

Back the half-time draw @ 2.06
Back Chris Wood to score first @ 4/1