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Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Saturday, March 18, 4:30pm (AEDT), McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle



The Knights finally tasted success after a long absence, recording their first win in 19 games when they defeated the Titans 34-26 in Round 2. The Rabbitohs bounced back after their disappointing Round 1 loss to the Tigers, with a 38-18 win over the Sea Eagles. Rabbitohs halfback Adam Reynolds was a massive inclusion and he could prove the difference in Newcastle on Saturday afternoon.
History
The Knights have lost seven-straight against the Rabbitohs and have conceded 34 points or more in the past four clashes. The Rabbitohs won both clashes in 2016, winning the Round 2 encounter 48-6, followed by a 34-12 victory in Newcastle in Round 25. Rabbitohs flyer Alex Johnston scored 4 tries across both games.
Form
The Knights put to bed a 19-game losing streak against Gold Coast last Saturday with an impressive 34-26 win that could have been much bigger than the final score indicated. That followed on from a solid 26-22 loss in New Zealand to open the season. South Sydney bounced back from a Round 1 humiliation at the hands of the Wests Tigers with a 38-18 win against Manly at Brookvale. The Rabbitohs conceded the first three tries before Cody Walker and Damien Cook dominated the clash.
Key Matchup
Trent Hodkinson v Adam Reynolds. Hodkinson has taken a back seat to youngster Brock Lamb in the opening rounds and will need to be ready to step up when Lamb has an off day. Reynolds made an early return to the Rabbitohs line-up after his absence with appendicitis and did an outstanding job directing the side around the park. Reynolds should get the points decision here.
Stats That Matter
Newcastle are 2-0 ATS with a 2-0 over number while South Sydney are 1-1 ATS and with a 2-0 over record. The Rabbitohs have won seven straight against Newcastle including the last four by 22-plus. Home underdogs who scored 25 or more are 37-18 ATS since 2013. Souths are 24-18 ATS away from ANZ over the last three years.
Final Thoughts
The Knights will be full of confidence after their win against the Titans, but will come crashing back down to earth here. Stopping the Rabbitohs halves in Walker and Reynolds, combined with the one-two punch of Robbie Farah and Damien Cook will prove too tough for the Novocastrians.
How It’s Shaping Up
Souths by 8
Best BetSouths -4 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
Over 43.5 ($1.88)

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