NRL Preview
St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels

Sunday, March 12, 6:30pm (AEDT), WIN Stadium, Wollongong



The Dragons were the most impressive side in Round 1 and will be determined to prove that it wasn’t a flash in the pan. The Eels slogged out a win over the Sea Eagles in Round 1 and could find things tougher in Wollongong this week.
History
The Eels have won the last 4 matches against the Dragons dating back to 2013, while the Dragons have won the last 4 matches against the Eels when playing at their suburban grounds (Kogarah and Wollongong).
Form
Arguably no team was more surprising in Round 1 than St George Illawarra, who put an incredible 42 points on joint premiership favourites Penrith in a 42-10 walloping of the Panthers. It is just the third time since the start of the 2010 season that the Dragons have posted 40-plus points. Parramatta got their season off to a strong start with a gritty 20-12 win over Manly at Brookvale. The Eels were dominant through the middle and moved the ball with class but lacked the polish for the final touch time and time again.
Key Matchup
Josh McCrone v Corey Norman. There’s plenty of pressure on McCrone this year as he attempts to do a job in the No.7 jersey, allowing Gareth Widdop to play his natural game. He was solid in the Round 1 win over the Panthers and will need to back it up here. Norman was easily the best player on the park in the Eels Round 1 win over the Sea Eagles. He scored a try off a kick-and-regather and built plenty of pressure with his forced line dropouts.
Stats That Matter
St George Illawarra and Parramatta both covered in the opening round with the Dragons going over and the Eels going under. The Dragons have scored 40 points just three times since 2010. The Saints have not played a home game against the Eels since 2013 but have won four straight at their suburban home grounds. St George Illawarra are 11-7 ATS in Wollongong since 2013 with a 12-6 under record while as an outsider at the ground they are 5-2 ATS. Home outsiders who won by 20 or more points the week prior are 14-4 ATS over the last five seasons. Home underdogs cover at 66% in the first four rounds dating back to 2008 with the under hitting at 57% in matches with a home underdog getting 3.5 or less. Night games go under at 60% in the first four rounds since 2012. Parramatta have covered 6 of their last 7 as a road favourite while they have covered 6 of their last 8 away from Parramatta Stadium.
Final Thoughts
This match is shaping as a coin flip and with that in mind, The Wolf has settled on the home side. The Panthers were equal competition favourites before the season started and it’s impossible to ignore that the Dragons put 42 points on them.
How It’s Shaping Up
Dragons by 2
Best BetSt George Illawarra +1.5 ($1.90)

Other Recommended Bets
St George Illawarra 1-12 ($3.40)

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