Tottenham v Millwall: Back rampant Harry Kane to tame the Lions

Tottenham Hotspur v Millwall
Sunday, 14:00
Live on BBC1 and Betfair Live Video

Tottenham

The chance of a semi-final spot should be motivation in itself, but Tottenham have extra reason to give it their all against Millwall on Sunday. This will be the last FA Cup match ever to be played at White Hart Lane, fully 112 years after the first. The weight of history will be on the shoulders of Mauricio Pochettino and his charges.

Recent results have been positive, Europa League travails aside. Fulham were brushed aside in the last round of the cup, while the last nine matches on home soil have yielded nine wins, with an aggregate scoreline of 27-5. With Harry Kane in full flow, Spurs carry huge threat in the final third, while the defence has benefitted greatly from the return of Jan Vertonghen.

There could be some rotation here, with the likes of Michel Vorm, Kieran Trippier, Moussa Sissoko and Harry Winks all pushing for starts. But given they don't play again until next Sunday and have no further European commitments to work around, Pochettino is unlikely to rest too many of his key men.

Millwall

It has been a dream cup run for Millwall, who kicked off with wins over Southend United and Braintree Town and then registered a hat-trick of memorable victories over Premier League sides. Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester all returned from The Den with their tails between their legs after underestimating Neil Harris' streetwise side.

The Lions have been superb since the turn of the year: they are the only side in the top four divisions yet to taste defeat in 2017 and have been ludicrously miserly at the back, conceding just twice in their last 13 matches. No surprise, then, that Harris is eyeing promotion to the Championship.

Steve Morison and Jed Wallace should both be fit to play after returning from injury, but Jordan Archer may not be so lucky. The goalkeeper, who put in the performance of his life against Leicester, has missed the last four games with a groin problem and is rated as a "40:60" doubt.

Match Odds

With Tottenham such a compelling force on home soil, it's little surprise that they are strong 1.17 favourites against their League One visitors. Millwall are 20.00 to spring another upset, although it is worth noting that most of their best work in their recent unbeaten run has come on their own patch; they are unbeaten in five away, but only won one of those games.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Spurs tend to the overs at White Hart Lane: five of their last six games at home have produced three goals or more. When Kane, Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen are on song, they're a very difficult side to stop.

Millwall are notorious grinders, which means they are rarely involved in thrillers: their 2-1 win over MK Dons last Saturday was the first game that snuck over the 2.5-goal line in their last 12.

The contrast between those two tendencies makes the game a hard one to call as far as goals go. Much could turn on Archer's fitness, but as the market currently stands, there might be some legs in the unders at a chunky 2.84.

To Score

With Spurs so short to win and another giantkilling unlikely, we must find an alternative route to value. A good option is to bet on Kane to continue his magnificent goalscoring form, with the expectation that Pochettino will start him as he did against Fulham in the last round.

The striker has scored nine goals in his last five matches at White Hart Lane, so is predictably short at 1.36 to notch on Sunday. But given that he has scored the first goal four times in five domestic matches, the 11/5 available on him repeating that trick looks very promising.

Recommended Bet

Back Harry Kane to score first at 11/5