Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos
Thursday, March 16, 8.05pm (AEDT), AAMI Park, Melbourne
The Broncos will head to Melbourne to take on the undefeated Storm, who have conceded just 16 points across the first two rounds to have the best defence in the NRL. There is reports that Storm fullback Billy Slater will make his long awaited return to the NRL after his absence with a shoulder injury.
History
The Storm have won 17 of the last 21 against the Broncos with Brisbane not winning two straight against Melbourne since 2004. The honours between the sides were shared in 2016. The Broncos won the Round 25 clash 26-16 at AAMI Park, with Tom Opacic crossing for a double. The Storm thumped the Broncos 48-16 in the Round 17 encounter, with Fijian flyer Suliasi Vunivalu scoring a hat-trick.
The Storm have won 17 of the last 21 against the Broncos with Brisbane not winning two straight against Melbourne since 2004. The honours between the sides were shared in 2016. The Broncos won the Round 25 clash 26-16 at AAMI Park, with Tom Opacic crossing for a double. The Storm thumped the Broncos 48-16 in the Round 17 encounter, with Fijian flyer Suliasi Vunivalu scoring a hat-trick.
Form
Melbourne have been typically impressive to start the season with strong road wins against Canterbury and New Zealand. Defence has again been the key with the Storm conceding just 16 points in their two clashes. Brisbane followed their solid 26-18 season opening win against Cronulla with a brutal 21-20 loss at home to rivals North Queensland. Brisbane’s attack has looked good but some periods of poor defence would be worrying Wayne Bennett.
Melbourne have been typically impressive to start the season with strong road wins against Canterbury and New Zealand. Defence has again been the key with the Storm conceding just 16 points in their two clashes. Brisbane followed their solid 26-18 season opening win against Cronulla with a brutal 21-20 loss at home to rivals North Queensland. Brisbane’s attack has looked good but some periods of poor defence would be worrying Wayne Bennett.
Key Matchup
Cooper Cronk v Ben Hunt. Cronk was instrumental in the Storm’s win over the Warriors last week, setting up two tries and scoring a late try of his own. After a disappointing effort in Round 1 against the Sharks, Hunt bounced back against the Cowboys, with two try-assists.
Cooper Cronk v Ben Hunt. Cronk was instrumental in the Storm’s win over the Warriors last week, setting up two tries and scoring a late try of his own. After a disappointing effort in Round 1 against the Sharks, Hunt bounced back against the Cowboys, with two try-assists.
Stats That Matter
Melbourne are 2-0 ATS with a 1-1 total number while Brisbane are 1-1 ATS with a 2-0 over record. The Storm have won 17 of the last 21 against the Broncos with Brisbane not winning two straight against Melbourne since 2004. The Broncos have won the last two at AAMI Park. Small interstate underdogs cover at 63% since 2014. The under is 26-16 when the Storm concede 12 or fewer in the last four seasons. Night games go under at 60% in the first four rounds since 2012. Home favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% since 2013 after conceding 10 or fewer. The Storm have covered just 18 of their last 42 at home when favoured by 4 or more.
Melbourne are 2-0 ATS with a 1-1 total number while Brisbane are 1-1 ATS with a 2-0 over record. The Storm have won 17 of the last 21 against the Broncos with Brisbane not winning two straight against Melbourne since 2004. The Broncos have won the last two at AAMI Park. Small interstate underdogs cover at 63% since 2014. The under is 26-16 when the Storm concede 12 or fewer in the last four seasons. Night games go under at 60% in the first four rounds since 2012. Home favourites of 4 or more cover at 55% since 2013 after conceding 10 or fewer. The Storm have covered just 18 of their last 42 at home when favoured by 4 or more.
Final Thoughts
The Storm will be happy to finally play a match at AAMI Park, after road trips to Belmore and Auckland in the opening two rounds. The absence of Jesse Bromwich is a blow for the Storm, but Craig Bellamy has the knack of getting the best out of his fringe forwards such as Christian Welch and Tim Glasby. All eyes will be on the Storm No.1 jersey and if ‘Billy The Kid’ makes his return. It’s shaping up as a great battle, but the home side will get the two points on the back of their brick wall defence.
The Storm will be happy to finally play a match at AAMI Park, after road trips to Belmore and Auckland in the opening two rounds. The absence of Jesse Bromwich is a blow for the Storm, but Craig Bellamy has the knack of getting the best out of his fringe forwards such as Christian Welch and Tim Glasby. All eyes will be on the Storm No.1 jersey and if ‘Billy The Kid’ makes his return. It’s shaping up as a great battle, but the home side will get the two points on the back of their brick wall defence.
How It’s Shaping Up
Melbourne by 4
Melbourne by 4
Best BetMelbourne 1-12 ($2.90)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 36.5 ($1.88)
Under 36.5 ($1.88)
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