AFL Preview: Giants v Swans

GWS v Sydney

Saturday 7:25pm at Spotless Stadium

The Battle of the Bridge should be a fascinating and all-important affair despite having the worst name of any derby in all of Australian sport.

Form

Greater Western Sydney have remarkably drawn their last two games, finishing level with Geelong and Hawthorn in consecutive weeks. More incredibly, six of the last 10 Giants games have been decided by three points or fewer. The Giants are now second the ladder with a 10-3-2 record. The Giants rank fourth in attack and fifth in defence.

Sydney are incredibly into the Top 8 with an 8-7 record following eight wins in their last nine matches. They have won five straight with three of those wins by 35 or more. The Swans have conceded 51 points or fewer in three of their last five. The Swans rank second defensively while they rate ninth in scoring.

Stats That Matter

– GWS have won the last three against Sydney after losing 8 of the first 9.

– GWS have covered 8 of the last 12 against Sydney.

– The under has hit in 8 of the last 12 Giants-Swans matches.

– The Giants have covered just 2 of their last 9 at Spotless Stadium.

– GWS are 3-0 ATS as a favourite of under three goals at Spotless and 4-0 ATS in Sydney.

– The Swans have covered 4 of their last 6 in Sydney as an outsider.

– Sydney are 20-12 under as an outsider since 2012.

– Sydney have covered 6 of their last 9 as an underdog.

– The Swans are 26-16 ATS after conceding 60 points or fewer.

– GWS are 16-23 ATS after scoring 95 or more points.

Betting Data

2017 Line: GWS 6-9, Sydney 7-8

2017 Over-Under: GWS 9-6, Sydney 6-9

What To Expect

GWS have felt like an incredibly lucky team this year. They have got away with so many close games and it feels like the wheel will turn soon. Sydney are excellent as an outsider and really hold their form after a big defensive effort. The Giants have struggled as a betting proposition at Spotless of late. Ride the Swans wave.

How It’s Shaping Up

Sydney by 10

Recommended Bet

Sydney +1.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Josh Kennedy has hit 110-plus in four of his last six and will be front and centre in a low-scoring game against the Giants.

Recommended Bet

Josh Kennedy 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.97)