St Kilda and Essendon both sit on the fringes of the Top 8 making the opener to Round 17 an absolute blockbuster.
St Kilda are up to seventh on the AFL ladder with a 9-6 record following a demolition job on Richmond. The Saints have now won four on the trot, their longest winning streak since 2011. The Saints St Kilda have kept opponents to 85 or under in 7 of their last 10. St Kilda ranks eighth in both scoring and defence.
Essendon are 10th on the ladder with a 7-8 record following their comfortable win over Collingwood. The Bombers have won just two of their last six though including a loss to the Brisbane Lions. The Bombers have kicked 100-plus in five of their last eight and rank sixth in scoring while they rank a poor 12th in defence.
Stats That Matter
– St Kilda have won three straight against Essendon.
– The Saints have covered 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Bombers.
– St Kilda have covered just 4 of their last 11 at Etihad.
– Essendon have covered 7 of their last 10 at Etihad.
– Essendon are 14-9 under in night matches at Etihad since 2012.
– St Kilda have covered 6 of their last 9 night games at Etihad.
– Essendon are 1-6 ATS with a 5-2 under record as an underdog of less than two goals in Melbourne at night.
– St Kilda are 7-3 ATS as a favourite in Melbourne of fewer than two goals.
– The Bombers are 26-12 under after scoring 100 or more.
2017 Line: St Kilda 6-9, Essendon 9-6
2017 Over-Under: St Kilda 7-8, Essendon 8-7
What To Expect
This is an absolute ripper to open the round but it is not an easy one for punters. The Saints are in red-hot form and playing consistent footy so would rather be with them. They have been good at Etihad at night and excellent in Melbourne as a small favourite. The Bombers have been ordinary against the Saints of late and expecting that to continue.
How It’s Shaping Up
St Kilda by 13
St Kilda -5.5 ($1.90)
Seb Ross has hit at least 110 in 8 of his last 12 matches with two of those misses being scores of 107. He should have no problem making the nut in this one.
Seb Ross 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.72)
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