AFL Preview: Demons v Crows

Melbourne v Adelaide

Saturday 7:40pm at TIO Stadium

The Crows are back on the top of the table but will not have an easy job keeping the position against a Demons team pressing hard for a Top 4 position.

Form

Melbourne are up to fifth on the ladder with a 9-6 record following five wins in their last six matches. The Demons have won just one of their last four matches against Top 8 opposition but that was a win in Adelaide over the Crows. Melbourne rank fifth in scoring this season but are ninth in defence.

Adelaide have ascended back to the top of the ladder with an 11-4 record. The Crows rank top in scoring while they have the fourth best defence in the AFL. The Crows have won their last two and five of their last seven. Adelaide have kept opponents to 60 or fewer in four of their last seven matches.

Stats That Matter

– Adelaide have won 4 of the last 6 against Melbourne.

– Melbourne last won consecutive games against Adelaide back in 1998-99.

– The Demons have covered the last four against the Crows.

– The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Demons-Crows game.

– The under has hit in 5 of the 7 matches in Darwin since 2012.

– The favourite has covered 4 of the last 5 Darwin games that Melbourne have played in.

– Melbourne have covered 11 of their last 14 as an outsider.

– The Demons have covered 12 of their last 18 as an underdog of more than two goals.

– Adelaide are 23-15 ATS interstate when favoured by more than two goals with a 23-15 over record.

– Adelaide are 6-3 ATS at night this year.

– Melbourne are 16-7 under at night since 2012.

– The Crows are 13-8 ATS after conceding 60 points or fewer.

– Melbourne have covered just 1 of their last 7 after conceding 85 or fewer.

Betting Data

2017 Line: Melbourne 6-9, Adelaide 10-5

2017 Over-Under: Melbourne 8-7, Adelaide 6-9

What To Expect

Tough game for bettors. Betting the Melbourne plus. The Demons have covered four straight against the Crows and have been ultra-reliable of late as an underdog, covering 11 of their last 14. Getting more than two goals, they have to be the bet.

How It’s Shaping Up

Adelaide by 9

Recommended Bet

Melbourne +16.5 ($1.91)

Player Markets

Matt Crouch has hit 110 in seven of his last 12 games so the $2.20 looks a tasty price.

Recommended Bet

Matt Crouch 110+ Fantasy Points ($2.20)