Geelong v Hawthorn
Saturday 1:45pm at MCG
Traditionally one of the most-anticipated matches of the season, the high-flying Cats will be hoping to bury a resurgent Hawthorn in a massive Saturday afternoon clash.
Geelong enter this off an 85-point annihilation of the Brisbane Lions. The Cats have lost just one of their last seven matches and now sit third on the ladder with a 10-4-1 record. Geelong rank second in scoring and sixth in defence. The Cats though have been excellent defensively of late, not conceding more than 83 points in seven straight.
Hawthorn have launched a mini-revival of their season after three straight weeks without a loss, defeating Adelaide and Collingwood before a draw with Greater Western Sydney. They are up to 13th on the ladder with a 6-8-1 record. The Hawks have not conceded a triple figure score in their last nine matches.
Stats That Matter
– Geelong have won the last three and 15 of the last 20 against Hawthorn.
– Hawthorn have covered 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Cats.
– The teams met in Round 4 with Geelong winning by 86 points.
– The Hawks are 14-5 under as an outsider since 2012.
– Hawthorn are 8-3 ATS as an underdog in Melbourne since 2012.
– The Hawks have covered just 3 of their last 9 at the MCG.
– Geelong are 19-13 under at the MCG since 2012.
– Geelong have covered just four of their last 17 at the MCG.
– The Cats have gone under in 13 of their last 18 at the MCG.
– Geelong are 10-3 in day games at the MCG since 2012.
– The Cats are 3-9 ATS as a favourite of more than two goals at the MCG since 2012.
– The under is 35-22 after a team hits 150 the week prior.
2017 Line: Geelong 8-7, Hawthorn 6-9
2017 Over-Under: Geelong 8-7, Hawthorn 4-11
What To Expect
Could not be more keen on the under here with every angle pointing to a low-scoring affair. The Hawks have been a big under team all year and the Cats are defending like beasts at present. Geelong are a big under team at the MCG, particularly recently and in day games. The Hawks are a big under team as an outsider. The under hits big-time when a team is coming off posting 150. Five trucks the under.
How It’s Shaping Up
Geelong by 5
Under 180.5 points ($1.88)
Tom Mitchell is averaging 129.8 in fantasy this year and has posted 130-plus in three of his last four and six of his last nine. Stick with the gun.
Tom Mitchell 130+ Fantasy Points ($1.95)
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